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Immigration Rallies Fail to Move Public Opinion
Wednesday, May 03, 2006
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Nationwide rallies, protests, and boycotts on Monday had little if any impact on public opinion. To the degree that there was any movement, it was not what the organizers intended. Rasmussen Reports conducted identical surveys on April 29-30 and May 1-2 to measure the immediate reaction to the May Day events. A total of 1,000 Likely Voters were interviewed for each survey. Before the marches, Democrats led on the Generic Congressional Ballot 46% to 36%. After the marches, Democrats led by an identical 46% to 36%. On the first survey voters trusted Democrats more than Republicans on immigration by a 38% to 35% margin. On the follow-up, 36% trusted Democrats and 35% preferred the GOP. Support for an enforcement first policy was 67% before the marches, 66% after. Support for Earned Citizenship was 53% on the first survey and 53% on the follow-up. Support for strict employer penalties for knowingly hiring illegal aliens was at 70% on both surveys. Before the marches, 50% said that illegal immigrants reduce wages of working class Americans. After the marches, 52% held that view. There were only a couple of possibly significant changes. The number with a favorable opinion of the protesters rose from 24% to 29% (an earlier survey showed 26% with a favorable opinion). Also, there was a slight increase in support for a pro-enforcement candidate in a hypothetical Congressional match-up between candidates with opposing views on the immigration debate--"One candidate favors building a barrier along the Mexican border and forcing illegal aliens to leave the United States. The other candidate favors expanding the ways that foreign workers can legally get jobs in the United States." Before the marches, the pro-enforcement candidate led 49% to 40%. In the follow-up survey, the pro-enforcement candidate led 53% to 37%. Republicans and unaffiliated voters were a bit more likely to support the pro-enforcement candidate on the second survey. Democrats were a bit less likely to do so. Rasmussen Reports will be running the same survey again next week to measure any delayed reaction to the May 1 Results for the two surveys side-by-side can be reviewed by Premium Members. Another recent survey found Democrats with a 12 percentage point lead on a generic 2008 Presidential ballot. However, a third party immigration enforcement candidate could shake up the race. A look at all of our research on this topic makes it clear that neither political party has yet developed policy or rhetoric that reflect an understanding of the nuances of the immigration debate. We have recently released immigration related polling data on April 26, April 11, April 7, and April 1. Earlier surveys on immigration have found support for building a barrier along the Mexican border and positive attitudes towards citizen patrols along the border. Another survey found that most Americans consider current immigration laws a threat to both national security and the economy. Three-fourths of all Americans believe it is too easy for people from other countries to enter the United States. Attitudes towards immigration do not fall neatly along typical partisan, demographic, or ideological lines. For this reason, among others, the immigration issue ultimately has the potential to shake up the current partisan alignment in the nation. However, the impact of the issue varies widely by region. In several southwestern states, the issue is considered more important than the situation in Iraq by roughly half of all voters. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
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