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The Last Word--Almost

A Commentary By Larry Sabato

Thursday, October 30, 2008

These are our 2008 election projections as of Thursday, October 30. We will make final adjustments and tweaks on Monday afternoon, November 3, and post them to the website. At that point, we will attempt to call the few remaining toss-ups.

We wish everyone the best possible Election Day, with congratulations to the winners and condolences to the losers. Our sincere thanks to the thousands of readers who have offered tips, suggestions, and constructive criticism.

In January 2009 we'll start our focus on the new administration and Congress--and yes, the critical "Census/redistricting" midterm election cycle of 2010 (36 governors, thousands of state legislative seats, the entire U.S. House again, and the next third of the U.S. Senate seats on the ballot). The never-ending cycle of American politics will be played out here on Sabato's Crystal Ball .

These states are close, and we will revisit them on Monday: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, and Virginia.

SENATE UPDATE:

CURRENTLY HELD BY DEMOCRATS

State

Incumbent

Projected Result

Arkansas

Sen. Mark Pryor

Democratic

Delaware

Sen. Joe Biden

Democratic

Illinois

Sen. Dick Durbin

Democratic

Iowa

Sen. Tom Harkin

Democratic

Louisiana

Sen. Mary Landrieu

Democratic

Massachusetts

Sen. John Kerry

Democratic

Michigan

Sen. Carl Levin

Democratic

Montana

Sen. Max Baucus

Democratic

New Jersey

Sen. Frank Lautenberg

Democratic

Rhode Island

Sen. Jack Reed

Democratic

South Dakota

Sen. Tim Johnson

Democratic

West Virginia

Sen. Jay Rockefeller

Democratic

 
 

CURRENTLY HELD BY REPUBLICANS

State

Incumbent

Projected Result

Alabama

Sen. Jeff Sessions

Republican

Alaska

Sen. Ted Stevens

Democratic

Colorado

OPEN (Sen. Wayne Allard retiring)Mark Udall (D) vs. Bob Schaffer (R)

Democratic

Georgia

Sen. Saxby Chambliss

***

Idaho

OPEN (Sen. Larry Craig retiring)Larry LaRocco (D) vs. Jim Risch (R)

Republican

Kansas

Sen. Pat Roberts

Republican

Kentucky

Sen. Mitch McConnell

Republican

Maine

Sen. Susan Collins

Republican

Nebraska

OPEN (Sen. Chuck Hagel retiring)Scott Kleeb (D) vs. Mike Johanns (R)

Republican

New Hampshire

Sen. John Sununu

Democratic

New Mexico

OPEN (Sen. Pete Domenici retiring)Tom Udall (D) vs. Steve Pearce (R)

Democratic

North Carolina

Sen. Elizabeth Dole

Democratic

Minnesota

Sen. Norm Coleman

Republican

Mississippi

Sen. Thad Cochran

Republican

Mississippi (special)

OPEN (Sen. Trent Lott retiring)Ronnie Musgrove (D) vs. Roger Wicker (R)

Republican

Oregon

Sen. Gordon Smith

Democratic

Oklahoma

Sen. Jim Inhofe

Republican

South Carolina

Sen. Lindsey Graham

Republican

Tennessee

Sen. Lamar Alexander

Republican

Texas

Sen. John Cornyn

Republican

Virginia

OPEN (Sen. John Warner retiring)Mark Warner (D) vs. Jim Gilmore (R)

Democratic

Wyoming

Sen. Mike Enzi

Republican

Wyoming (special)

Sen. John Barrasso (appointed)

Republican

 

***We believe this race will go to a Dec. 2 runoff election. No candidate will receive 50 percent plus one on Nov. 4.

Projected results listed in italics are projected pick-ups for the opposing party.

GOVERNOR UPDATE:

CURRENTLY HELD BY DEMOCRATS

State

Incumbent

Projected Result

Delaware

OPENJack Markell (D) vs. Bill Lee (R)

Democratic

Montana

Brian Schweitzer

Democratic

North Carolina

OPENBeverly Perdue (D) vs. Pat McCrory (R)

Toss-up**

New Hampshire

John Lynch

Democratic

Washington

Christine Gregoire

Democratic

West Virginia

Joe Manchin III

Democratic

 

**Extremely close toss-up. We will declare this race on Monday.

CURRENTLY HELD BY REPUBLICANS

State

Incumbent

Projected Result

Indiana

Mitch Daniels

Republican

Missouri

OPENJay Nixon (D) vs. Kenny Hulshof (R)

Democratic

North Dakota

John Hoeven

Republican

Utah

Jon Huntsman, Jr.

Republican

Vermont

Jim Douglas

Republican

 

Projected results listed in italics are projected pick-ups for the opposing party.

HOUSE UPDATE:

Produced under the direction of Isaac Wood and Paul Wiley.

Republican Held Seats in Play: 58 (The other 141 Republican-held seats are solid for the GOP.)

Republican Hold (20)

 

Toss-up (9)

 

Democratic Pick-up (29)

 

AL-02 (OPEN)

 

FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart)

 

AK-AL (Young)

 

AZ-03 (Shadegg)

 

ID-01 (Sali)

 

AZ-01 (OPEN)

 

CA-50 (Bilbray)

 

IN-03 (Souder)

 

CA-04 (OPEN)

 

FL-13 (Buchanan)

 

LA-04 (OPEN)

 

CO-04 (Musgrave)

 

IA-04 (Latham)

 

MD-01 (OPEN)

 

CT-04 (Shays)

 

IL-18 (OPEN)

 

NE-02 (Terry)

 

FL-08 (Keller)

 

LA-07 (Boustany)

 

NJ-07 (OPEN)

 

FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart)

 

MO-06 (Graves)

 

OH-01 (Chabot)

 

FL-24 (Feeney)

 

MO-09 (OPEN)

 

WY-AL (OPEN)

 

IL-10 (Kirk)

 

NJ-05 (Garrett)

     

IL-11 (OPEN)

 

NV-02 (Heller)

     

KY-02 (OPEN)

 

OH-02 (Schmidt)

     

MI-07 (Walberg)

 

PA-06 (Gerlach)

     

MI-09 (Knollenberg)

 

PA-15 (Dent)

     

MN-03 (OPEN)

 

PA-18 (Murphy)

     

MN-06 (Bachmann)

 

SC-01 (Brown)

     

NC-08 (Hayes)

 

TX-07 (Culberson)

     

NJ-03 (OPEN)

 

TX-10 (McCaul)

     

NM-01 (OPEN)

 

VA-02 (Drake)

     

NM-02 (OPEN)

 

VA-05 (Goode)

     

NV-03 (Porter)

 

WV-02 (Capito)

     

NY-13 (OPEN)

 
       

NY-25 (OPEN)

 
       

NY-26 (OPEN)

 
       

NY-29 (Kuhl)

 
       

OH-15 (OPEN)

 
       

OH-16 (OPEN)

 
       

PA-03 (English)

 
       

VA-11 (OPEN)

 
       

WA-08 (Reichert)

 
                 

Democratic Held Seats in Play: 32

                 
       

WI-08 (Kagen)

       
       

TX-23 (Rodriguez)

       
       

PA-12 (Murtha)

       
       

PA-10 (Carney)

       
       

PA-08 (Murphy)

       
       

PA-04 (Altmire)

       
       

OR-05 (OPEN)

       
       

OH-18 (Space)

       
       

NY-24 (Arcuri)

       
       

NY-20 (Gillibrand)

       
       

NY-19 (Hall)

       
       

NH-02 (Hodes)

       
       

NH-01 (Shea-Porter)

       
       

MS-01 (Childers)

       
       

MN-01 (Walz)

       
       

LA-06 (Cazayoux)

       
       

KY-03 (Yarmuth)

       
       

KS-03 (Moore)

       
       

KS-02 (Boyda)

       
       

IN-09 (Hill)

       
       

IN-08 (Ellsworth)

       
       

IL-14 (Foster)

       
       

IL-08 (Bean)

       
       

GA-12 (Barrow)

       
       

GA-08 (Marshall)

       
       

CT-05 (Murphy)

       
       

CA-11 (McNerney)

       

TX-22 (Lampson)

     

AZ-08 (Giffords)

       

PA-11 (Kanjorski)

     

AZ-05 (Mitchell)

       

FL-16 (Mahoney)

     

AL-05 (OPEN)

       

Republican Pick-up (3)

 

Toss-up (0)

 

Democratic Hold (30)

Democratic Held Seats in Play: 32 (The other 204 Democratic-held seats are solid for the Democrats.)

The Crystal Ball will make its final calls on all toss-up House races on Monday. These projections will be found on our website

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