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House Race Update: Democratic Domination Continues

A Commentary By Larry J. Sabato, Isaac Wood, and Paul Wiley

Friday, October 24, 2008

Every week it seems to get worse for House Republicans. As we will demonstrate below, we have expanded the number of possible to likely net gains for Democrats from our previous 15 to 20 to a new and rather astounding 22 to 27 seats.

The past week has been a wild one for congressional races nationwide. Some contests have gotten more competitive, and in some districts one party has even pulled away. And by "one party," we do in fact mean "one party"--the Democrats. This week the Crystal Ball is making 33 changes to its House ratings, some of them major, and others minor. In all but two of those races the changes benefit Democrats.

The two districts resisting this week's Blue tide are Florida's 16th, home to scandal-plagued Democrat Tim Mahoney , and Kansas's 2nd, where Nancy Boyda is now facing a tight toss-up race.

Let's look at this week's changes, with seats currently held by the GOP highlighted in Red and Democrat-held seats in Blue.

RATINGS CHANGES

District

Incumbent

Previous Rating

New Rating

AL-02

OPEN

Leans R

Toss-up

AZ-03

Shadegg

Likely R

Leans R

CA-04

OPEN

Likely R

Toss-up

CA-50

Bilbray

Likely R

Leans R

CT-04

Shays

Leans R

Leans D

FL-08

Keller

Toss-up

Leans D

FL-16

Mahoney

Leans R

Likely R

FL-24

Feeney

Toss-up

Leans D

FL-25

M. Diaz-Balart

Leans R

Toss-up

ID-01

Sali

Likely R

Leans R

IL-10

Kirk

Leans R

Toss-up

IN-03

Souder

Safe R

Leans R

KS-02

Boyda

Leans D

Toss-up

KY-02

OPEN

Leans R

Toss-up

LA-06

Cazayoux

Toss-up

Leans D

MD-01

OPEN

Leans R

Toss-up

MI-07

Walberg

Toss-up

Leans D

MI-09

Knollenberg

Leans R

Toss-up

MN-03

OPEN

Toss-up

Leans D

MN-06

Bachmann

Safe R

Toss-up

MO-06

Graves

Likely R

Leans R

NE-02

Terry

Likely R

Leans R

NJ-05

Garrett

Likely R

Leans R

NM-01

OPEN

Toss-up

Leans D

NM-02

OPEN

Toss-up

Leans D

NY-26

OPEN

Leans R

Toss-up

NC-08

Hayes

Toss-up

Leans D

OH-16

OPEN

Toss-up

Leans D

PA-03

English

Leans R

Toss-up

SC-01

Brown

Safe R

Likely R

TX-07

Culberson

Likely R

Leans R

WV-02

Capito

Likely R

Leans R

WY-AL

OPEN

Leans R

Toss-up

Here is the total picture on our current ratings:

Republican Held Seats in Play: 58 (141 Safe/Solid R)

Likely R (9)

 

Leans R (15)

 

Toss-up (17)

 

Leans D (15)

 

Likely D (2)

FL-13 (Buchanan)

 

AZ-03 (Shadegg)

 

AL-02 (OPEN)

 

AK-AL (Young)

 

NY-13 (OPEN)

 

IL-18 (OPEN)

 

CA-50 (Bilbray)

 

CA-04 (OPEN)

 

AZ-01 (OPEN)

 

VA-11 (OPEN)

 

LA-07 (Boustany)

 

FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart)

 

FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart)

 

CO-04 (Musgrave)

     

PA-06 (Gerlach)

 

ID-01 (Sali)

 

IL-10 (Kirk)

 

CT-04 (Shays)

     

PA-15 (Dent)

 

IN-03 (Souder)

 

KY-02 (OPEN)

 

FL-08 (Keller)

     

PA-18 (Murphy)

 

MO-06 (Graves)

 

LA-04 (OPEN)

 

FL-24 (Feeney)

     

SC-01 (Brown)

 

MO-09 (OPEN)

 

MD-01 (OPEN)

 

IL-11 (OPEN)

     

TX-10 (McCaul)

 

NE-02 (Terry)

 

MI-09 (Knollenberg)

 

MI-07 (Walberg)

     

VA-05 (Goode)

 

NJ-05 (Garrett)

 

MN-06 (Bachmann)

 

MN-03 (OPEN)

     
   

NV-02 (Heller)

 

NJ-03 (OPEN)

 

NC-08 (Hayes)

     
   

OH-02 (Schmidt)

 

NJ-07 (OPEN)

 

NM-01 (OPEN)

     
   

TX-07 (Culberson)

 

NY-26 (OPEN)

 

NM-02 (OPEN)

     
   

VA-02 (Drake)

 

NY-29 (Kuhl)

 

NV-03 (Porter)

     
   

WA-08 (Reichert)

 

OH-01 (Chabot)

 

NY-25 (OPEN)

     
   

WV-02 (Capito)

 

OH-15 (OPEN)

 

OH-16 (OPEN)

     
       

PA-03 (English)

         
       

WY-AL (OPEN)

         
                   
                   
               

TX-23 (Rodriguez)

 
               

PA-08 (Murphy)

 
               

PA-04 (Altmire)

 
               

OR-05 (OPEN)

 
           

WI-08 (Kagen)

 

OH-18 (Space)

 
           

PA-10 (Carney)

 

NY-24 (Arcuri)

 
           

NY-20 (Gillibrand)

 

NY-19 (Hall)

 
           

MS-01 (Childers)

 

NH-02 (Hodes)

 
           

LA-06 (Cazayoux)

 

MN-01 (Walz)

 
           

KY-03 (Yarmuth)

 

KS-03 (Moore)

 
       

TX-22 (Lampson)

 

IL-14 (Foster)

 

IN-09 (Hill)

 
       

PA-11 (Kanjorski)

 

GA-08 (Marshall)

 

IN-08 (Ellsworth)

 
       

NH-01 (Shea-Porter)

 

CA-11 (McNerney)

 

IL-08 (Bean)

 
       

KS-02 (Boyda)

 

AZ-08 (Giffords)

 

GA-12 (Barrow)

 

FL-16 (Mahoney)

     

AL-05 (OPEN)

 

AZ-05 (Mitchell)

 

CT-05 (Murphy)

 

Likely R (1)

 

Leans R (0)

 

Toss-up (5)

 

Leans D (11)

 

Likely D (15)

 

Democratic Held Seats in Play: 32 (204 Safe/Solid D)

Stay tuned next week for further updates. As some races heat up and others cool off, the Crystal Ball will be there to deliver you the latest forecast.

See More Commentary by Lawrence Kudlow

See Other Political Commentary

Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports.

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