Democratic Wave Continues to Build

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Back in 2002 and 2004, the Crystal Ball brought misery to Democrats and joy to Republicans, as we projected the solid GOP victories that occurred in those years. The cycle of politics is not to be denied, and so in 2006 and now in 2008, there is a role reversal. With each passing week, we send Democratic spirits soaring ever higher and depress our Republican readers further.

Yin and yang. The tide goes out, and it comes in. The first shall be last and the last shall be first. And all that stuff.

Before we give our latest updates for the Electoral College, Congress, and the governors, let's focus briefly on what is happening in the voter turnout arena. We've been monitoring early voting in states such as North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Colorado and it is abundantly clear that registered Democrats are turning out at extraordinary rates, at least so far, and Republicans are not. Take the Tar Heel State, for example. Already 629,296 people have voted early, well above the pace of 2004. Democrats are over 56% of the 2008 total, compared to just 45% in 2004. African-Americans are about 30% of the early vote total, compared to only 17% in 2004. (Our thanks to Crystal Ball contributor Justin Sizemore for this data.) True enough, registered Democrats could be voting for McCain, and if you are a Republican and want to whistle past the graveyard, feel free to believe that. Also true: Late votes count just as much as early votes, but the early voting disparity between the parties in many states is another indication of the "enthusiasm gap" favoring Democrats--a phenomenon we have observed and written about here at the Crystal Ball since the start of the nominating season in early January.

At least theoretically, people of all ideological stripes can celebrate this renaissance in voter participation. Naturally, the actual results will cause some to regret it!

Now, let's take a look at our Electoral College update. Just two states have changed categories, which might come as a surprise to people who follow the breathless news reports about all the supposedly dramatic ups and downs in the campaign. At this late juncture, most of it is meaningless background noise. For example, we're long past the point when the vice presidential candidates are going to affect very much. Whatever impact they have has already been "priced in" to the presidential candidates' standing. Palin's goofs and Biden's gaffes are sideshows, for the most part.

(A proprietary note: Given the likely Democratic victory, we want first dibs on seeking a publisher's contract for The Book of Biden Gaffes or The Sayings of Vice President Joe (Not the Plumber) . Over four or eight years, given Biden's reliable ability to disconnect his brain from his mouth, we suspect the volume will grow to the length of War and Peace.)

Of the two shifts, by far the most significant is VIRGINIA, which we are moving from pure toss-up to LEANS OBAMA. We have been very cautious about the Old Dominion, in part because it's been our home for the better part of six decades. More than most, we know how tough this state can be for a Democratic presidential candidate. But while we continue to disbelieve the national polls showing Obama winning Virginia by 10 percentage points, we now believe that Obama has built a small edge of two or three points in the state. The reasons are clear: Bush, the disastrous economy, the demographic growth of Northern Virginia and its strong Democratic tilt, the momentum built up by recent Democratic victories (Mark Warner in 2001 and soon 2008, Tim Kaine in 2005, and Jim Webb in 2006), and the remarkable voter registration and voter contact efforts of a literal army of Obama staffers and volunteers in the state for a full year.

But it is more than that. The McCain campaign and the state GOP appear to have had a death wish. McCain's staff refused to believe Virginia was truly competitive for too long, and the McCain-Palin visits were few. McCain's brother called Northern Virginians "Commies" and one of McCain's most prominent spokespersons said they were not the "real Virginia." Generally, it is difficult to win the votes of people you are insulting.

We'll see whether changes in the last dozen days alter this picture. Virginia is still close. It is not absolutely a done deal for Obama yet.

We are essentially holding steady on our ratings in this category (see our last gubernatorial article and below). We now believe Gov. Mitch Daniels (R-IN) is likely to win reelection; previously we had merely leaned the contest to him. We are also more convinced than ever that Democrat Jay Nixon will win in MO, switching the statehouse to his party. Next week we will finally call the two remaining Governor's contests, in NC and WA. If this were an off-year, we'd call NC right now for Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R). He has out-campaigned and out-debated Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue (D). But NC is unusually Democratic this year, both for President and Senate. Could Perdue benefit from Obama's coattails here? It's her best chance--and again, what irony. A Democratic presidential candidate might actually help his party's gubernatorial nominee, instead of hurting. In WA, the large Obama margin is making it exceedingly tough on Republican Dino Rossi in his re-match with Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire. Again, if this were an off-year election, we'd bet on Rossi. Unless conditions change rapidly, we believe Gregoire will pull out a second term.