2004 to 2024, Part Two: When Each State Was at its Most Republican By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— The “presidential lean” of a state can, over time, help us quantify its political trajectory.
— Much of the Heartland and Midwest has come to lean more to the GOP over the past two decades, though the Sun Belt has gotten more Democratic.
— By our “leans” metric, Donald Trump held up especially well in several swing states in 2020, even as he lost the presidency that year.
— Florida was the only state that was at its most Democratic in 2004, the earliest year that we consider, and its most Republican last year, showing a clear trend toward Republicans over two decades.