Commentary By J. Miles Coleman

Rating Changes: Iowa Senate, ME-2, and More By J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We are making four rating changes this week—one in the Senate and three in the House—with two races getting better for Democrats and two getting better for Republicans.

— The Iowa Senate race moves onto the periphery of the competitive board this week. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) was in the news recently for comments on health care, although the bigger reason for the switch is that she drew a potentially credible Democratic challenger.

— The most notable House change is moving ME-2, the most Republican district held by a Democrat, to Toss-up, and we are also making a couple of other changes to open seats where talented incumbent House members are running for the Senate.

Notes on the State of Politics: Omaha Mayor, Past Voter Turnout in New Jersey and Virginia By J. Miles Coleman

Dear Readers: Today, we are leading off with some observations from Omaha’s recent mayoral election. The city makes up the better part of Nebraska’s 2nd District, a rare Kamala Harris-won but GOP-held district that is perpetually high on both parties’ House wish lists. Then, we will look at recent turnout patterns in New Jersey and Virginia, which will each host closely-watched gubernatorial contests in November.

— The Editors

The Governors, Part One: Democrats Start as Favorites in 2025 New Jersey and Virginia Races By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— While 2026 will feature three dozen gubernatorial contests, two states, New Jersey and Virginia, will elect governors in open-seat races this year.

— We are starting out both 2025 contests, which are in states that backed Kamala Harris by nearly 6 points apiece, as Leans Democratic.

— In New Jersey, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D, NJ-11) is a tenuous favorite for the Democratic nomination amidst a crowded field, while 2021 GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli is a stronger favorite on his side.

— Neither Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R-VA) nor former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D, VA-7) have primary competition, so Virginia’s race is in general election mode earlier than usual.

Notes on the State of Politics: New Hampshire Senate and Change in Virginia By J. Miles Coleman

Notes on the State of Politics: New Hampshire Senate and Change in Virginia

House District Loyalty in the Trump Era By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In presidential elections since 2016, only 28 of the 435 current House districts have backed nominees of different parties.

— In next year’s House elections, districts that have been Electoral College bellwethers since 2016 could play a large role in determining whether Democrats can recapture the majority.

— Still, Republicans have some potential offensive targets in districts that have been national popular vote bellwethers.

— While House Democrats find themselves in a similar overall situation now as they did in 2017, the general contours of the House battlefield are different.

Checking Back on Key 2024 Counties, Part Two: The Sun Belt By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In North Carolina and Georgia, Kamala Harris gained in some fast-growing suburban counties, but it was not enough to cancel out the drift to Donald Trump elsewhere in those states.

— Arizona was Trump’s strongest of the presidential Toss-up states in part because its border counties continued to shift strongly in his direction.

— Trump carried Nevada because he was the best-performing Republican in Clark County (Las Vegas) in decades, although Washoe County (Reno) narrowly stuck with Harris.

Checking Back on Key 2024 Counties, Part One: The Industrial North By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Before the 2024 election, the Crystal Ball isolated several key counties in Toss-up states. We are circling back to see what the results in those counties said about the overall election.

— Several Democratic-trending suburban and touristy counties in the Industrial North continued to move left, although just not by the margins that Kamala Harris would have needed.

— In Pennsylvania, Donald Trump’s notable gains in the Scranton area played into his strong 2024 showing in the state.

— Sticking to the Industrial North generally, and in 2026 news, Sen. Gary Peters’s (D-MI) retirement opens up a Senate seat in Michigan for the second time in as many cycles.

Wisconsin 2024: Not Critical But Still Crucial By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Though she still lost it by less than a percentage point, Wisconsin was Kamala Harris’s best state out of the 7 that we rated as Toss-ups during the election.

— In the traditionally red WOW counties around Milwaukee, Harris gained votes, but fewer than she would have liked.

— Though it is still a Democratic bastion, Donald Trump saw some of his biggest vote gains in Milwaukee County.

— Much of Trump’s margin in the state came from doing just a little bit better across the board in 2024 than he did in 2020.

— In the northeastern part of the state, Harris held up relatively well in the BOW counties, and several cities in that region will be worth watching going forward.

How Virginia Illustrates the 2024 Election By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Kamala Harris carried Virginia by close to 6 points this month. This was worse than Joe Biden’s 10-point showing in the state, although it was slightly better than Hillary Clinton’s performance, even as the latter had a Virginian (Sen. Tim Kaine) on her ticket.

— Much of the state’s movement to Donald Trump can be attributed to a pronounced rightward shift in heavily Democratic Northern Virginia.

— Though she lost ground overall, Harris held on to some of Joe Biden’s 2020 gains in many of the state’s more marginal localities.

— Though it was not a Toss-up state, in some ways, such as its internal swing and voting rhythms, Virginia was in sync with the nation as a whole.

The State-Level Differences Between the Presidential and Senate Races By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Split outcomes between presidential and Senate results saw a resurgence in 2024, as at least four Donald Trump-won states sent Democrats to the Senate.

— Republicans still took the majority in the Senate because while Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) performed notably better than Kamala Harris, they did not do so by enough to hold their seats.

— Across most key Senate races, Senate Democrats ran better than Harris in rural parts of their states but were comparatively weak in some suburban counties.

— In one of Harris’s best states, Maryland, former Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) stood out as Republicans’ top overperformer, although Harris’s 26-point margin in the state was too much for him to overcome.

Places to Watch, Part Two: The Sun Belt By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In North Carolina, Kamala Harris seems likely to gain in suburban Cabarrus County but may have to watch rural counties like Wilson.

— While it is not the most likely case, two Georgia counties that have trended in the opposite direction, Fayette and Sumter, could both conceivably flip.

— While Phoenix’s Maricopa County dominates Arizona, raw vote margins in a trio of its other large counties have proved predictive.

— In Nevada, Las Vegas and Reno predominate.

Places to Watch, Part One: The Industrial North By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— While the 7 Toss-up states on our current Electoral College map will have outsized importance nationally, each of those states has several key counties that we will be watching.

— In this article, we’ll be isolating a few counties from the “Blue Wall” states that could tell the tale of the 2024 election.

— In Wisconsin, Ozaukee County is the bluest of the “WOW” counties while Door County has been a great bellwether in recent cycles.

— To win back Michigan, Donald Trump would probably like to flip back Saginaw County and keep the Cherry Coast red.

— In Pennsylvania, Kamala Harris may be poised to narrow Trump’s margin in Cumberland County, although we are curious how she’ll fare in Joe Biden’s native Lackawanna County.

How Current Presidential Polling May Impact House Races By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— On Monday, Rep. Angie Craig (D, MN-2) became the first House Democrat from a marginal district to call for President Joe Biden to drop his reelection effort.

— With Biden intent on continuing his campaign, we thought it would be worth examining how his current polling could impact the House playing field.

— If the national popular vote were tied, we would expect Donald Trump to carry 10 additional House seats, compared to his 2020 result.

— If Trump won the popular vote by closer to three points, about where national polling suggests he is now, he could be positioned to flip about two-dozen previously Biden-won districts.

— It is possible that, even though the practice has been on the decline for some time, ticket-splitting may make something of a comeback in 2024.

Districts of Change, Part Three: When Each District Was Most Democratic (and Most Republican) By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

—Using data from Dave’s Redistricting App, we are looking at when each district has leaned most Democratic and most Republican, compared to the national popular vote, since 2008.

—By this metric, Biden’s 2020 performance represented the best Democratic showing since 2008 in a plurality of districts (145 of 435).

—Though his result was less impressive in raw terms, when adjusting for the national popular vote, John McCain was the best-performing recent Republican in 143 districts, the most on the GOP side.

—Some familiar trends, such as Mitt Romney’s strength in white collar areas and Hillary Clinton’s support from Hispanics, show up when comparing district voting across the years.

Districts of Change, Part Two: Looking Beyond the Straight-Party Districts By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Most districts in the House, 379 of the 435, have exclusively backed nominees from only one of the major parties in presidential elections since 2008.

— This leaves 56 districts that have voted at least once for both parties.

— Districts that backed Barack Obama twice and then did the same for Donald Trump make up the most numerous non-straight party group, and most of those districts have Republicans in Congress.

— Democrats, however, hold four of the five “bellwether” districts that have backed the winners of the last four presidential elections.

Districts of Change, Part One: How All 435 Congressional Districts Voted from 2008-2020 By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— One of the most useful tools that the Crystal Ball employs on a regular basis is Dave’s Redistricting App, which helps us make sense of redistricting and includes a plethora of data.

— Using some of DRA’s newly-released data, we are looking back at how the 2008 election compares to 2020 by congressional district.

— Despite doing several points worse nationally than Barack Obama did in 2008, Joe Biden performed better than Obama in nearly half (211) of the current 435 House districts.

— Our home state of Virginia illustrates several of the broader national swings that have taken hold since 2008.

— Most districts cast more raw votes in 2020 than they did in 2008, though there are some interesting exceptions.

Where Trump’s Primary Showing Was (And Wasn’t) Especially Strong By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

—Though former President Donald Trump easily won most GOP primaries this year, some areas stood out to us.

—By comparing how Trump did in each county to how he did overall in each state, we can get a better idea of how his coalition is shaping up.

—Geographically, Trump beat his statewide primary share in a majority of counties in most states.

—Meanwhile, and not surprisingly, Trump tended to struggle in areas that are Democratic, or blue-trending, in general elections, although there were some exceptions.

The Postwar History of Senate/Presidential Ticket-Splitting, Part Two By J. Miles Coleman

As Democrats try to hold the Senate through defending red states, a look at the rise and fall of split Senate outcomes in presidential years.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— This is the second part of our history of presidential-Senate split-ticket results, from World War II to now. This part covers the mid-1980s to present, a timeframe that started with many instances of split results and ended with hardly any at all.

— In 1984 and 1988, amidst large GOP victories at the presidential level, more than a dozen Republican-won states sent Democrats to the Senate both years.

— The 1990s, when Democrats were successful at the presidential level, split-ticket voting tended to benefit Republicans in the Senate, making the decade an exception in the postwar era.

— In the 2000s, Democrats were back to benefitting from the split-ticket dynamic, first under a Republican president, George W. Bush, then with a Democrat, Barack Obama.

— Montana, a state which Senate Democrats are defending this year in a Toss-up race, is the state that has split its ticket most often in the postwar era. And almost every state has split its ticket at least once during that time.

The Postwar History of Senate/Presidential Ticket-Splitting, Part One By J. Miles Coleman

As Democrats try to hold the Senate through defending red states, a look at the rise and fall of split Senate outcomes in presidential years.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In the post-World War II era, there have been nearly 200 instances of states voting for one party for president and another for Senate in presidential election years.

— This type of ticket splitting has generally been to the benefit of Democrats, who have been out of the White House for a slight majority of that timespan.

— The split-ticket trend has been declining, but Democrats will want to reverse that to some degree this year.

Notes on the State of the Senate By J. Miles Coleman

Analyzing Hogan’s entry in Maryland; deciphering action out west; the 2024 Democratic downside risk.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

–Last week, national Republicans got their best possible Senate recruit in deep blue Maryland, with former Gov. Larry Hogan.

–Though Hogan will be hard pressed to actually win, as has been the case with some other recent “crossover” governors who’ve run in Senate races, his candidacy is notable enough that it moves Maryland onto the periphery of the competitive map.

–In Montana, Rep. Matt Rosendale (R, MT-2) finally entered his state’s Senate contest, setting up a primary with Tim Sheehy, who national Republicans prefer.

— In Arizona, Kari Lake, a pro-Trump election denier, received the nod from national Republicans, though Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-AZ) plans are still not known.

— With Democrats being so exposed this cycle—they hold roughly two-thirds of the Senate seats that will be up—it’ll be important for them to minimize their losses.