Fifty-eight percent (58%) of America’s football fans believe that Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts will win it all on Super Bowl Sunday, February 4. Thirty-nine percent (39%) think that the Chicago Bears will emerge from the big game in Miami as Super Bowl Champion.

For this survey, football fans are defined as those who watch at least one NFL game a week during the regular season. All but 9% of these fans will be watching the Super Bowl. Among those who will be watching, 65% will be rooting for the Colts while 35% will be Bears’ fans for the day.

The Super Bowl always attracts a lot of viewers who don’t pay much attention during the regular season. In fact, 42% of those who plan to watch the title game this year don’t follow the sport during the regular season. These more casual fans are evenly divided in their expectations and their loyalties. Forty-four percent (44%) will be pulling for the Colts and an identical percentage will be pulling for the Bears. Sixteen percent (16%) have no preference. By a 44% to 41% margin, they think coach Lovie Smith’s Bears will win.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of those watching expect their team to win. Fans from both sides are equally confident.

Overall, 57% of Americans say that they’re planning to watch the showdown in Miami. That figure includes 63% of men and 51% of women. Most (56%) will be watching at home. Another 33% will be at the home of a friend or a relative. Just 8% say they’ll be at a sports bar. Football fans are a bit more likely to watch at home while more casual viewers of the big game are a bit more likely to be found at the home of a friend or relative.

Rasmussen Reports will be releasing more fan data over the coming week. Are Super Bowl commercials the best? Are men more interested in the game or the cheerleaders? And more.

The national telephone survey of 1,500 adults was conducted January 22-24, 2007. Margin of sampling error for the full sample is +/- 3 percentage points. The sample included 555 football fans who watch at least one game a week during the regular season. The margin of sampling error for the sample of football fans is +/- 4 percentage points.

Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.