Thursday, June 09, 2016
Has Hillary Clinton’s wrapping up the Democratic nomination made a difference? Have Donald Trump’s comments about the Hispanic judge presiding over the Trump University case come back to haunt him?
The latest Rasmussen Reports weekly White House Watch survey shows Clinton taking a four-point lead over Trump – 42% to 38% - among Likely U.S. Voters. Fifteen percent (15%) still prefer some other candidate, while five percent (5%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
A week ago, it was Clinton 39%, Trump 38%. The race has essentially been tied in Rasmussen Reports surveys since last October. Trump had his best showing a month ago, leading Clinton 42% to 37%. The latest finding is Clinton’s high to date.
With the candidates running neck-and-neck, we took a closer look earlier this week at the large number of voters who prefer another candidate or are undecided.
Clinton now earns 74% of the vote from Democrats, up from 68% last week, suggesting that some of Bernie Sanders’ support may be moving her way now that their primary battle is over. Trump has the backing of 72% of Republicans, down from 76% in the previous survey. It remains to be seen whether these are developing trends.
But Clinton has lost ground among voters not affiliated with either major party and is now essentially tied with Trump among this group.
Rasmussen Reports will update the Clinton-Trump White House Watch matchup numbers every Thursday morning from now until Election Day in November.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on June 6-7, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Sixteen percent (16%) of voters still opt for someone else or are undecided if we add the most prominent third-party candidate, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, to the mix. In a three-way race, it’s Clinton 38%, Trump, 37%, Johnson 8%.
Clinton leads Trump by 14 points among women but trails by eight among men. Women are also more likely to favor another candidate or be undecided.
The Democrat continues to run weakest among those under 40, traditionally an important part of her party’s voter base, but in this election cycle, younger voters have much preferred Sanders and have strongly questioned Clinton’s honesty.
Blacks who have been critical to Clinton’s primary wins continue to overwhelmingly favor the former first lady, while Trump this week has a slight advantage among whites and other minority voters.
Clinton has a near two-to-one lead among government workers but is only barely ahead among those who work in the private sector.
Voters tend to think Clinton will perform similarly to President Obama when it comes to social issues if she wins the presidency, while they expect big changes from Trump - although not necessarily positive ones.
Generally speaking, when it comes to the economy and other major issues, voters expect Clinton to continue Obama’s policies and Trump to change them, for better or worse.
Trump has been rebuked even by some leaders in his own party for his public criticism of the Obama-appointed federal judge who is handling the lawsuit against Trump University. Most voters agree judges are motivated by politics more than the law but are less comfortable with dragging judges into the political debate.
However, most voters told us earlier this week that the Trump University issue will not impact their support of Trump positively or negatively in the upcoming election.
Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.
We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.
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To learn more about our methodology, click here.