If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

 

Trump Change: Trump’s Chances Up Again

Friday, November 20, 2015

Has Donald Trump's tough response to the massacres in Paris helped him regain some lost ground?

The latest Rasmussen Reports weekly Trump Change survey finds that 63% of Likely Republican Voters believe Trump is likely to be their party’s nominee next year, up from 59% last week and more in line with recent surveying. This includes 24% who think Trump is Very Likely to win the GOP race, up from 19% last week but still down from 30% three weeks ago. Thirty-four percent (34%) of GOP voters say Trump is unlikely to win the nomination, but just nine percent (9%) consider it Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Overall belief among Republican voters that the billionaire developer is likely to win the nomination spiked to a high of 74% in late October but has generally run in the mid-50s for most weeks since Rasmussen Reports began the weekly survey in mid-August

Among all likely voters, 51% think Trump is the likely Republican nominee, while 43% disagree. This includes 20% who say it’s Very Likely and 15% who feel it’s Not At All Likely. This marks a slight improvement over recent surveys.

Following the attacks in Paris by radical Islamic terrorists, Trump characterized President Obama's decision to let 10,000 Syrian refugees into the United States next year as the “ultimate Trojan horse”, referring to the potential for terrorists to enter the country with them. Most voters share Trump's national security concerns and oppose allowing those refugees to come here

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on November 17-18, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

As long as the GOP race remains competitive, Rasmussen Reports will continue tracking Trump’s surprisingly successful run for the White House in a weekly Friday feature we’re calling Trump Change.

The outsiders – Trump and Dr. Ben Carson - are still leading the pack in Rasmussen Reports’ most recent look at the Republican presidential primary race following last week's debate.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of voters not affiliated with either major political party think it’s likely Trump will win the nomination, including 20% who say that’s Very Likely. Most Democrats still think Trump is unlikely to go all the way.

Men and voters under 40 give Trump a better chance than women and older voters do.

Most whites (55%) consider a Trump nomination likely, while most blacks (61%) disagree. Other minority voters are more evenly divided.

Democratic voters are more convinced than they have been in months that Hillary Clinton will represent their party in next year’s presidential election. But Clinton has a problem among younger voters in her party.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.

We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.

Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.

To learn more about our methodology, click here.