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Trump Change: Most Still See Trump on Track for Nomination

Friday, March 25, 2016

Despite Jeb Bush’s endorsement of Donald Trump’s last serious rival Ted Cruz this week, Republicans continue to believe overwhelmingly that “The Donald” is the GOP’s next likely presidential nominee.

This week’s Rasmussen Reports Trump Change national telephone survey finds that 84% of Likely Republican Voters think Trump is likely to win their party’s nomination this year, with 53% who say it’s Very Likely. This is down only slightly from last week’s all-time highs of 87% and 59% respectively. 

Just 12% of GOP voters say a Trump nomination is not very or Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)  

Among all likely voters, 73% say Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee, including 43% who feel it is Very Likely. This, too, is down a bit from the record highs of the week before. Nineteen percent (19%) think a Trump nomination is unlikely, but that includes only eight percent (8%) who say it’s Not At All Likely.

Trump has benefited from the anger many Republicans feel toward their current elected leaders. Seventy-six percent (76%) of GOP voters now believe Republicans in Congress have lost touch with the party’s base nationwide, the highest-ever level of disapproval in regular surveying on this question since 2008.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 22-23, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Many think Trump’s support will grow following the Brussels terror attacks earlier this week. Sixty-three percent (63%) of Americans believe a terrorist attack similar to the one in Brussels is likely in the United States within the next year.

Even before the incident in Brussels, 71% of Republicans – and 50% of all voters – said the federal government does not focus enough on the potential threat of domestic Islamic terrorism.

Men remain more confident than women that Trump is the likely GOP nominee. Voters under 40 believe more than their elders that that outcome is Very Likely.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of Democrats and 75% of voters not affiliated with either major party see Trump as the likely Republican candidate in the fall. This, too, is consistent with recent polling.

Conservatives think a Trump nomination is far more likely than moderates and liberals do.

Voters who Strongly Disapprove of President Obama’s performance are twice as likely as those who Strongly Approve to think Trump is likely to win the nomination.

The media get mixed reviews for their coverage of the 2016 presidential campaign so far. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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