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Trump Change: 74% of GOP Voters Think Trump Likely Nominee

Friday, February 12, 2016

What a difference a primary makes. After a one-week drop following Donald Trump’s second-place finish in the Iowa caucus, expectations that the New York businessman will be the Republican presidential nominee have jumped back to their highest levels.

Rasmussen Reports’ latest Trump Change survey, the first since Trump’s big win in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, finds that 74% of Likely Republican Voters again feel he is likely to be the GOP nominee. This includes 40% who say it’s Very Likely, tying the high first reached three weeks ago.

Last week, 61% of Republicans still believed Trump was the likely nominee,  but that was down from a high of 74% the week before.

Twenty-one percent (21%) of GOP voters say Trump is not likely to win the nomination, but that includes only six percent (6%) who feel it’s Not At All Likely. Those findings were up to 36% and 14% respectively a week ago. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

When Trump announced his candidacy in mid-June of last year, however, just 27% of Republicans – and 23% of all voters – said he was likely to end up as the 2016 GOP nominee.

Among all likely voters, 60% now think Trump is likely to be the Republican standard-bearer. That’s up from 52% in the previous survey but still short of the high of 63% reached two weeks ago. Thirty-three percent (33%) believe Trump will not be the nominee. These findings include 26% who say it is Very Likely that he will win the nomination and 12% who say it’s Not At All Likely.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 9-10, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Many in the conservative establishment, including prominent commentators and the editors of National Review magazine, say Trump is not a conservative, and most Republicans agree.

But conservatives (69%) are more confident than moderates (63%) and liberals (45%) that Trump ultimately will win the nomination.

Men continue to have more confidence in Trump’s chances than women do.

Middle-aged voters remain stronger believers in Trump’s nomination than those in other age groups.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Democrats and 55% of voters not affiliated with either major party now think Trump is likely to be the Republican nominee.

Even before the New Hampshire primary, Trump held a double-digit lead nationally among Republican voters.

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has made it official that he is considering entering this year’s presidential contest as an independent. Early polling suggests a Bloomberg candidacy would be good for Trump and bad for Hillary Clinton.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of voters feel the Republican-led Congress’ record will hurt the GOP nominee for president.

With the primary process finally underway, both Republicans and Democrats are more confident that the ideological leanings of their party's eventual presidential nominee will match theirs.

Despite Bernie Sanders’ sizable victory in the New Hampshire Democratic primary, it’s still looking like Trump vs. Clinton this November.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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