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Democratic Lead Tightens on Generic Ballot

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

The Democratic lead over Republicans has narrowed on this week's Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot.

The latest telephone and online survey finds that 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-three percent (43%) would opt for the Republican. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

At this time in 2014, the two parties were dead even, at 40% each. The Republicans went on to gain control of the Senate in that year’s midterm elections and increase their majority in the House of Representatives.

In mid-August, the two parties were dead even for the first time since May before Democrats jumped back out to a five-point lead three weeks ago. In early July, they led by eight, their largest lead since January.

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Wednesdays at 8:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

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The survey of 2,500 Likely Voters was conducted on September 16-20, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

In the U.S. House of Representatives, all 435 seats are on November’s ballot. Republicans now have a 47-seat majority in the House, so Democrats would need to take away 24 GOP seats to gain control.

In the U.S. Senate, 32 seats are up for grabs this November, but 23 of them are now held by Democrats. So Democrats need to hold all 23 of those and pick up two of the Republican seats to win control of the Senate. 

Incumbent Democrat Bob Casey Jr. appears comfortably on his way to reelection in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race.

Most voters still think that they personally know the issues when they go to vote but question whether others do.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell insists the U.S. Senate will vote on Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, and most voters still support that decision. There’s also only slightly less urgency in their minds about getting the job done.

Voters are closely divided over whether Kavanaugh attempted to sexually assault a girl when he was in high school, although many are still withholding judgment. But confidence that Kavanaugh will ultimately be confirmed by the Senate is down.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.

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