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Democratic Lead Shrinks in Generic Congressional Ballot

Wednesday, August 08, 2018

Democrats continue to lead Republicans on the latest Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot, but for the second week in a row, that lead has tightened.

The latest telephone and online survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-one percent (41%) would opt for the Republican. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

For two weeks in May, the parties were neck and neck on the Generic Ballot, but the Democrats regained their lead in early June and have maintained it since then. In early July, Democrats led by eight, their largest lead since January. 

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Wednesdays at 8:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

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The survey of 2,500 Likely Voters was conducted on July 29-August 2, 2018 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

In the U.S. House of Representatives, all 435 seats are on November’s ballot. Republicans now have a 47-seat majority in the House, so Democrats would need to take away 24 GOP seats to gain control. The big problem is that all but about 50 of the seats are shoo-ins for the party that now holds them.

In the U.S. Senate, 32 seats are up for grabs this November, but 23 of them are now held by Democrats. So Democrats need to hold all 23 of those and pick up two of the Republican seats to win control of the Senate. 

The FBI is in possession of taped recordings of President Trump and his former attorney Michael Cohen discussing payment for a former Playboy model’s story of an alleged affair prior to Trump’s election. But while most voters are following this news closely, they’re split over its impact on their vote.

Though most voters don’t believe Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation is a witch hunt, 39% agree with the president that it’s time for it to end. In May, 45% of Republicans said Mueller’s investigation will make them more likely to vote for a Trump-endorsed candidate this year, while 45% of Democrats said it will make them less likely. Voters not affiliated with either political party were evenly divided. 

Still, 37% of voters say their views most closely align with those of the president, while just 13% say their views are closest to those of the average congressional Republican. Thirty-nine percent (39%) say they align most with the average Democrat in Congress. This is also the highest number of voters to relate most with Trump since his inauguration, while the number who relate most to Democrats is at its lowest since that time. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.

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