Wednesday, October 26, 2016
Donald Trump is still slightly ahead in reliably Republican Utah despite a spirited challenge from Republican-turned-Independent Evan McMullin.
A new Heat Street/Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Utah Voters finds Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump with 32% support, while McMullin draws 29% and Democrat Hillary Clinton picks up 28%. Trump’s support is up two points from last week, while support for the other two candidates is unchanged. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson gets four percent (4%) of the vote. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Trump now leads McMullin 47% to 38% among Utah Republicans, a two-point improvement for the party nominee from the previous survey. Clinton still gets five percent (5%) of the GOP vote and 90% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, it’s McMullin 31%, Trump 27% and Clinton 26%.
McMullin, a former CIA operative, Goldman Sachs investment banker and senior House Republican staffer, says he is the true conservative in the race. Most of the state’s prominent Republicans have publicly denounced Trump since the airing of a video in which he made graphic sexual remarks about women. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Utah Republicans still think their state party leaders should officially endorse McMullin instead of Trump, but that's down from 46% in the previous survey; 49% now disagree.
Still, 61% of all Utah voters - including 47% of the state's Republicans - believe Clinton will win the election, compared to 25% who say that of Trump. Fourteen percent (14%) are undecided. By a 48% to 32% margin, voters in the state think Clinton was the overall winner of the debates, but 20% are not sure.
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Utah was conducted on October 23-24, 2016 by HeatStreet/Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
In Utah’s U.S. Senate race, incumbent Republican Mike Lee, one of those who has denounced Trump, picks up 56% of the vote to Democrat Misty Snow’s 26%. Four percent (4%) prefer independent candidate Bill Barron, while three percent (3%) favor Independent American Party candidate Stoney Fonua. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. These findings are little changed from last week.
Snow is the first openly transgender person from a major party to run for the U.S. Senate. Lee was first elected to the Senate in 2010 with 62% support. A majority of voters in the state still have not heard of Fonua or Barron.
Trump is viewed Very Favorably by just 14% of all Utah voters and Very Unfavorably by 54%. Clinton earns Very Favorables of 12% and Very Unfavorables of 62%.
Just 17% have a Very Favorable opinion of McMullin, down from 22% a week ago. Thirteen percent (13%) now regard him Very Unfavorably.
Johnson is viewed more unfavorably than favorably at this point.
Just 40% of Utah voters approve of the job President Obama is doing, with 21% who Strongly Approve. The president earns much lower approval in the state than he does nationally.
Sixty-nine percent (69%) approve of GOP Governor Gary Herbert's job performance, including 29% who Strongly Approve. Herbert who is up for reelection this year also has distanced himself from Trump.
In early February of this year, just 33% of Republicans nationwide viewed Trump as a conservative.
Clinton has edged ahead of Trump in the key state of Nevada. We’ll release new findings on that state’s U.S. Senate race later today.
Clinton and Trump remain close in our daily White House Watch survey.
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