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February 25, 2012

“The Help,” Clooney and Streep Lead Among Oscar Watchers

There are five actors, five actresses and nine films up for the night’s biggest awards at the 84th Academy Awards airing this Sunday, and Oscar watchers already are calling the winners.

Ten percent (10%) hope the Alexander Payne-directed film, “The Descendants,” will win the Best Picture Oscar. After that the hoped-for winners and their level of support are the Brad Pitt sports vehicle “Moneyball” (7%), Woody Allen’s “Midnight in Paris" (5%), the 9/11-themed “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” (4%), the Martin Scorcese-directed “Hugo” (4%), “The Tree of Life” (3%) by famed auteur Terrence Malick and Steven Spielberg's latest, “War Horse” (3%). Twenty-five percent (25%). however, don't have a preference.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 762 Adults who are likely to watch the Oscars was conducted on February 19-22, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

February 25, 2012

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending February 24, 2012

Tuesday will tell us a lot about the race for the Republican presidential nomination, and right now the numbers are running Mitt Romney’s way. Things are a little murkier when it comes to the following week’s Super Tuesday.

The former Massachusetts governor has widened his lead over leading challenger Rick Santorum in Arizona with that state’s primary looming on Tuesday. It’s now Romney 42%, Santorum 29%, with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Congressman Ron Paul far behind.

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February 24, 2012

52% Say U.S. Safer Today Than Before 9/11

Fewer voters than ever think the United States is a more dangerous place today than it was before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. At the same time, most believe the United States is winning the war on terror.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters believe America is safer than it was before those attacks. Only 26% disagree and think the country is not as safe today. That's down eight points from last month and the lowest finding since regular surveying began on the question in November 2006. Twenty-two percent (22%) still are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 20-21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

February 24, 2012

Montana: Romney 48%, Obama 41%

President Obama lost Montana to Senator John McCain in 2008 by a 50% to 47% margin. Now he draws even less support against the top two Republican hopefuls in the first Rasmussen Reports Election 2012 survey in the Treasure State.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide survey of Likely Voters in Montana shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leading the president 48% to 41%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum picks up 45% of the vote to Obama’s 41%. Nine percent (9%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) remain undecided.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Montana was conducted on February 22, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

February 24, 2012

Obama, Romney Nearly Tied in Pennsylvania, Santorum Trails

Mitt Romney runs neck-and-neck with President Obama in the key electoral state of Pennsylvania, but Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from the Keystone State, trails the incumbent by six points. Most voters in the state disapprove of the job the president is doing.

New Rasmussen Reports data shows that if Romney is the Republican presidential nominee, Obama leads 45% to 44%. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Pennsylvania survey of 438 Likely Voters was conducted February 8-23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

February 24, 2012

Arizona GOP Primary: Romney 42%, Santorum 29%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has widened his lead over leading challenger Rick Santorum in the Arizona Republican Primary race with the vote just four days away.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Arizona Republican Primary Voters finds Romney leading Santorum 42% to 29%. The survey, taken after the last scheduled debate of the GOP candidates, finds Romney up three points and Santorum down two from a week ago when it was a 39% to 31% race.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich earns 16% support, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul trails with eight percent (8%), marking virtually no change for either man from the previous survey. Only one percent (1%) favors another candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Arizona survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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February 24, 2012

I Tried to Open a Lemonade Stand By John Stossel

Want to open a business in America? It isn't easy.

In Midway, Ga., a 14-year-old girl and her 10-year-old sister sold lemonade from their front yard. Two police officers bought some. But the next day, different officers ordered them to close their stand.

February 24, 2012

Michigan GOP Primary: Romney 40%, Santorum 34%

True to a primary season already marked by sudden and surprising ups and downs, Mitt Romney has jumped back into the lead in Michigan’s Republican Primary race. The vote’s on Tuesday.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan shows Romney with 40% of the vote and former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum with 34%. The poll was conducted on Thursday night, following the last scheduled debate among the GOP candidates. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Michigan survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.  

February 24, 2012

Trickle Down Environmentalism Has Little Public Support By Scott Rasmussen

As a candidate in 2008, Barack Obama declared his support for green energy development. "For the sake of our economy, our security and the future of our planet," he said, "we must end the age of oil in our time."

February 23, 2012

59% Say Border Control More Important to Immigration Reform

Voters continue to name border control as the more important issue in immigration reform, but they also still support a welcoming immigration policy.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters think when it comes to immigration reform, gaining control of the border is more important than legalizing the status of illegal immigrants who are already in this country. That’s down two points from last month but in line with findings on the question since February 2007.

Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters think it is more important to legalize the status of undocumented workers already living here, unchanged from last month. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 16-17, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology.

February 23, 2012

Obama Tied With Romney, Santorum in Core Four States (FL, NC, OH, VA)

Four years ago, President Obama won a solid victory in the Electoral College by carrying the big swing states and adding a couple of states that had been in the Republican column for decades. As he seeks reelection, attention will likely focus on four key states—Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.

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February 23, 2012

Montana Senate: Rehberg (R) 47%, Tester (D) 44%

Democratic incumbent Jon Tester runs slightly behind his leading Republican challenger in his bid for reelection in Montana’s U.S. Senate race.

A new telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Republican Congressman Denny Rehberg earning 47% support to Tester’s 44% in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at this contest.  Four percent (4%) prefers some other candidate, while five percent (5%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Montana survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on February 22, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology

February 23, 2012

Georgia Primary: Gingrich 33%, Santorum 28%, Romney 20%, Paul 9%

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich leads the pack in the first Rasmussen Reports survey of the Republican Primary race in his home state of Georgia. A new telephone survey of Likely Georgia Republican Primary Voters shows Gingrich with 33% support, followed by former Senator Rick Santorum at 28%. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney runs third with 20% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul trails with nine percent (9%). Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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February 23, 2012

Obama Leads Romney, Santorum in Virginia

President Obama now holds single-digit leads over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum in hypothetical matchups in the key battleground state of Virginia.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters shows Obama drawing 49% support to Romney's 43%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
 

With Santorum as the Republican nominee, Obama holds a 51% to 43% lead. Five percent (5%) like some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on February 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

February 23, 2012

55% Think Gas Could Top $5 A Gallon

Most Americans think gas will top $4 a gallon in the next few months and most think $5 a gallon is possible. Government regulations and unrest in the Middle East are seen as the chief culprits.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 55% of American Adults think it is at least somewhat likely that the price of gas will rise above $5 a gallon in the next few months. Thirty-eight percent (38%) view that as unlikely. This includes 24% who believe the gas hike is Very Likely and 12% who say it is Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Adults nationwide was conducted on February 21-22, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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February 23, 2012

Santorum's Loose Lips Can Turn Convictions to Controversy By Michael Barone

A candidate's strengths can also be his weaknesses. Take the case of Rick Santorum.

One of his strengths is perseverance. For more than a year, he made hundreds of appearances in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, with no visible result in the polls.

He persevered and ended up finishing first in the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3. Then, after poor showings in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada, he finished first in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado on Feb. 7.

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February 23, 2012

The Santorum Surge And Its Larger Meaning By Larry J Sabato

Real votes make clear what polls cannot fully pick up. The Republican election season has been shaped by two forces, other than the obvious one to oust President Obama. First, the strongest potential candidates did not enter the fray, and the remaining contenders do not satisfy most GOP voters.

February 22, 2012

31% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Thirty-one percent (31%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, February 19.

The latest finding is down three points from a week ago, which showed the highest level of optimism since April 2010. From July 25 through December 11 of last year, the number of voters who were confident in the nation's current course resembled levels measured in the final months of the Bush administration, with voter confidence remaining in the narrow range of 14% to 19%. But that finding has climbed steadily since then.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports February 13-19, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

February 22, 2012

Virginia Senate: Allen (R) 46%, Kaine (D) 46%

The hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Virginia between two popular former governors remains a dead heat.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Old Dominion finds Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen both earning 46% support. Three percent (3%) prefers some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on February 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

February 22, 2012

Oklahoma Primary: Santorum 43%, Gingrich 22%, Romney 18%, Paul 7%

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum holds a two-to-one lead over his closest GOP rival in the first Rasmussen Reports survey of Oklahoma’s Republican primary race.

The latest statewide survey of Likely GOP Primary voters shows Santorum with 43% of the vote followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 22% and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 18%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul draws seven percent (7%) support. Just two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Oklahoma survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.