In the days prior to the 2020 presidential election, economic confidence jumped to 126.4 in the Rasmussen Reports Economic Index, up nine points from October but still shy of the highest finding since March when states started locking down due to the global coronavirus pandemic.
"I like a good contrarian argument as much as the next guy," tweets mild-mannered RealClearPolitics senior elections analyst Sean Trende, "but there's really no getting around the fact that the 2020 polling was a pile of steaming garbage."
For Republicans, the returns were mixed on Nov. 3.
Though he carried burdens unrivaled by a president since Herbert Hoover -- a plague that has killed 230,000 Americans in eight months and crashed the economy to depths not seen since the '30s - Donald J. Trump amassed 72 million votes, the largest total in Republican Party history.
Voters continue to see a more divided America after four years of the Trump presidency. While half of voters place the blame at Trump’s feet, nearly as many don’t see it getting any better if Biden takes his seat in the White House.
Biden’s thin margins in the decisive states; third party vote declines; Senate aligns more closely with presidential partisanship; Republicans demonstrate down-ballot crossover appeal.
— Joe Biden is on track to exceed Barack Obama’s 2012 popular vote margin, but his victory in the key states is even narrower than Donald Trump’s in 2016.
— Less than 2% of the national vote went to candidates other than Biden and Trump, a significant change from 2016.
— Assuming nothing changes, as many as 94 of 100 senators in the next Congress will share the same party as the state’s presidential winner.
— The ability to generate crossover support helped Republicans perform surprisingly well in both Senate and House races.
Voting patterns in this year’s presidential election are virtually the same as those in 2016, with most voters making their decision weeks before Election Day. But over a quarter of voters worry their vote won’t be correctly counted.
We, the 71 million Americans who voted to reelect Donald J. Trump, do not forgive.
Yale University has fancy dining halls. They pay no property tax.
Local restaurants struggle to compete, but their tax burden makes that hard.
The Rasmussen Reports Immigration Index for the week of November 1-5, 2020 has fallen to 98.5 from 101.8 the week before, suggesting that prospective President Biden may be at odds with voters if he pursues many of his proposed immigration policies.
Looking back at the presidential election, Trump voters overwhelmingly say they voted for the president, while a sizable number of Biden supporters admit they were voting against Trump rather than for the former vice president.
Think back to one year ago this month. America was at peace. American troops were coming home from the hotspots around the world. Incomes and jobs were skyrocketing, and Americans had made more wage and salary gains in three years under President Donald Trump than in the previous 16 years under Presidents George Bush and Barack Obama. The swamp was being drained.
"In victory, magnanimity... in defeat, defiance."
Thirty-six percent (36%) of Likely U.S. Voters think the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey for the week ending November 6, 2020.
At this writing, two days after the election, Joe Biden appears to be six electoral votes away from winning the presidency.
In surveys last week, this is what America told Rasmussen Reports...
Voters are less critical of the media’s presidential campaign coverage than they were four years ago, with most continuing to rely on television as their primary news source. But Biden voters remain far bigger cheerleaders of the media than Trump voters are.
1. This was not a good night for conventional polling. My review in Tuesday's Wall Street Journal of a book on the history of "polling failures" took perhaps too positive a view of contemporary polling. I find it remarkable that polling has been as accurate as it has been in a country where the completion rate for pollsters' contacts is below 10% -- but it got worse this week. The Real Clear Politics average of recent polls showed Joe Biden with more than 51% of the popular vote and Donald Trump with 44%. As this is written, Biden has 50% of the tabulated national popular vote, which will probably rise as California's data comes dribbling in, but Donald Trump has 48%. So, the current 1.9% Biden plurality is far lower than the polls' 7.2% Biden plurality.
Donald Trump may end up losing the 2020 election in the Electoral College, but he won the campaign that ended on Nov. 3.
President Trump’s job performance was the most important issue for Biden voters, closely followed by the coronavirus. For Trump voters, the economy came first and then how the president did his job.
Regardless of the winner, few voters expect us all to get along after Election Day. A Trump win is expected to trigger a more violent reaction than a Biden victory.
