If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.


Tuesday, May 17, 2016

What America Thinks: Clinton vs. Trump

Rasmussen Reports has been running hypothetical matchup surveys between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump for several months. Now after three months of primaries and caucuses, Clinton and Trump are closing in on the final delegates needed to formally be their parties’ nominees. What has America been thinking of the two candidates up until now?

In our first matchup survey in October of last year, Trump led Clinton by just two points—38% to 36%-- among likely voters, while 22% opted for some other candidate. The findings were virtually identical in December. Given the margin of error, the two were essentially tied.

In March, Clinton moved ahead of Trump by five points—41% to 36%. But still nearly one-out-of-four voters were up for grabs.

By late April, however, things were back to a near tie, with Trump edging Clinton 41% to 39%. In short, our polling – and remember we’re asking likely voters, many other firms survey all Americans or all registered voters – have shown this to be a close race all along. But there remains a sizable number undecided about or unhappy with the choices they’ve been given, and they’re the voters the candidates will be courting in the months ahead.

Beginning on Thursday, Rasmussen Reports will be running weekly Clinton-Trump matchup numbers until Election Day. Right now, 53% of all voters think it’s likely Trump will be president. Sixty percent (60%) say the same of Clinton. But just 28% in both instances say that candidate is Very Likely to win.

For Rasmussen Reports, I’m Alex Boyer. Remember, if it’s in the news, it’s in our polls.