Politics

New Mexico Senate: Heinrich (D) 45%, Wilson (R) 43%

The first Rasmussen Reports survey of the U.S. Senate race in New Mexico shows a tight contest between former Republican Congresswoman Heather Wilson and her two likeliest Democratic challengers.

The statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich picking up 45% of the vote against Wilson, who draws 43% support. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

If State Auditor Hector Balderas is the Democratic candidate, he and Wilson are tied at 44% each. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided.

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This New Mexico survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on February 14, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

59% Have Favorable Opinion of Social Security

Most voters continue to have a favorable opinion of Social Security, but they also don't believe the government retirement system will pay all their promised benefits. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 59% of Likely Voters share at least a somewhat favorable opinion of Social Security, but one-in three (35%) have an unfavorable view of it. These figures include 25% who have a Very Favorable impression of Social Security and eight percent (8%) who view it Very Unfavorably.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 10-11, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

59% of Catholics Disapprove of Obama’s Job Performance

Catholics strongly disapprove of the job President Obama is doing as the debate continues over his administration’s new policy forcing Catholic institutions to pay for contraception they morally oppose. While the president’s overall job approval ratings have improved over the past couple of months, they have remained steady among Catholics.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 59% of likely Catholic voters nationwide at least somewhat disapprove of the president’s job performance, while 40% at least somewhat approve. But the passion’s on the side of those who don’t like the job he’s doing: 44% Strongly Disapprove versus 19% who Strongly Approve.

The survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted February 6-12, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Most Ohio Voters View Social Security, Medicare Favorably

Ohio voters, compared to voters nationwide, have a more favorable opinion of Social Security but view Medicare about the same.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Ohio finds that 65% have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of Social Security, including 31% who have a Very Favorable opinion of it.  Thirty percent (30%) have an unfavorable impression of the government retirement system, with eight percent (8%) who have a Very Unfavorable opinion of it.  (To see survey question working, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on February 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters Are Gung-Ho for Use of Drones But Not Over the United States

Voters strongly approve of President Obama's decision to use unmanned drones to go after terrorists, but they're much less excited about the use of such aircraft for surveillance on the home front.

The president recently acknowledged that the United States has a secret drone program for killing al-Qaeda and Taliban terrorists, and the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just nine percent (9%) of Likely U.S. Voters oppose such a program.  Seventy-six percent (76%) approve of the use of the unmanned aircraft to kill terrorists. Fifteen percent (15%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 10-11, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

52% Say GOP Agenda In Congress Is Extreme

While positive ratings for Congress remain at an all-time low, more voters than ever see the Republican agenda in Congress as extreme.  

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 35% of Likely Voters say it would be more accurate to describe the agenda of Republicans in Congress as mainstream, while 52% feel extreme is a more accurate description.  Thirteen percent (13%) are not sure.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters nationwide was conducted on February 8-9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters Grow More Aware of Defense Secretary Panetta

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, who recently announced significant cuts to the defense budget and plans for the United States to end its combat role in Afghanistan earlier than scheduled, is a bit more recognizable to voters these days. So far, this increased awareness has mostly worked in his favor.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows that 39% view Panetta at least somewhat favorably, up 10 points from December. Thirty-four percent (34%) now view the former Central Intelligence Agency director unfavorably, up only slightly from the last survey. These findings include Very Favorable marks from 14% and Very Unfavorable reviews from 12%.

Twenty-seven percent (27%) of voters still don’t know enough about Panetta to offer an opinion, but that’s down from 38% in December.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

50% Approve of Obama in Ohio, 44% Say Same of Kasich

Voters in the key battleground state of Ohio have decidedly mixed feelings about Republican Governor John Kasich and President Obama these days.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 44% of Likely Ohio Voters at least somewhat approve of the job Kasich is doing after his first year as governor, while 50% at least somewhat disapprove. But the emotion’s on the side of the governor’s opponents: The overall findings include 17% who Strongly Approve of his job performance versus 32% who Strongly Disapprove. (To see survey question wording, click here and here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on February 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending February 10, 2012

Here we go again. Another Republican surges up out of the pack to challenge Mitt Romney’s grip on the party’s presidential nomination. Meanwhile, President Obama appears to have helped his rivals with a bad political call forcing Catholic institutions to go against their basic beliefs and pay for contraception.

In a survey taken Monday evening, Romney reclaimed the lead in the national race for the Republican presidential nomination, jumping ahead of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich 34% to 27%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum earned 18% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul ran last with 11%.

Then the following day Santorum won the trifecta, sweeping caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado and a non-binding primary in Missouri. His numbers nationally and in other states began to move, reinforcing that Romney has yet to seal the deal with many Republican voters. Still, 75% of those voters predicted early in the week that Romney will be the ultimate nominee, but it will be interesting to see if Romney holds on to the leads he has in the next primary states of  Arizona and Michigan.

32% Say Arab Spring Good for U.S., 31% Say Bad

With political chaos continuing in Egypt and Libya, voters are now evenly divided over whether the political changes from last year’s so-called “Arab Spring” are good or bad for the United States. Most favor an end to long-standing U.S. aid to Egypt.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 32% of Likely U.S. Votes believe that the recent changes in government in countries such as Egypt, Libya and Tunisia are good for the United States. But just as many (31%) now disagree and see them as bad. Fourteen percent (14%) think the changes from the Arab Spring have no impact on America, but an additional 24% aren’t sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters nationwide was conducted on February 8-9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ohio Senate: Brown (D) 44%, Mandel (R) 40%

Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown has a narrow lead over Republican challenger Josh Mandel in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at Ohio’s 2012 race for the U.S. Senate.

A new telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state shows Brown earning 44% support to Mandel’s 40%. Four percent (4%) like another candidate in the race, and, tellingly, 12% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Ohio survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on February 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

More Voters Than Ever Blame Bush, Not Obama, for Bad Economy

Voter confidence in President Obama’s handling of the economy is at its highest level in a year’s time. That’s in line with the recent upticks in overall economic confidence and in Obama’s job approval ratings as measured by the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Forty percent (40%) of Likely U.S. Voters now rate the president’s performance in the economic area as good or excellent, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. That’s up from 36% a week ago and is the highest positive finding since the first week in February 2011. Obama seldom has cracked the 40% mark in regular surveying since the first year of his presidency. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters each were conducted February 4-5, 2012 and February 6-7, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

53% Approve of Obama in Michigan

Most voters in Michigan now like the job President Obama is doing as president, but voters give mixed marks to their new governor, Republican Rick Snyder.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Michigan finds that 53% approve of the presidents’ job performance, while 45% disapprove. This includes 34% who Strongly Approve and an identical 34% who Strongly Disapprove. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Michigan survey of 1,806 Likely Voters was conducted on February 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Most GOP Voters Still Think Romney Will Be The Nominee

Even before Rick Santorum’s trifecta on Tuesday, he was one of the most popular of the Republican presidential candidates, but he’s never remotely challenged Mitt Romney for the top slot when GOP voters are asked who is most likely to be their nominee. The test for Santorum in the days ahead is to see if he can convince voters otherwise.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey, taken just before the voting on Tuesday, finds that 75% of Likely Republican Primary Voters nationwide believe Romney will ultimately be the GOP presidential nominee. Just 11% expect former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to win, with three percent (3%) who predict Santorum will come out on top. Only one percent (1%) think Texas Congressman Ron Paul will be the party’s standard bearer. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 6, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

50% Oppose Gov't Mandate for Religious Organizations to Provide Contraceptives

Half of voters do not agree with the Obama administration’s action forcing Catholic institutions to pay for birth control measures that they morally oppose. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 39% of Likely U.S. Voters believe the government should require a church or religious organization to provide contraceptives for women even if it violates their deeply held beliefs. Fifty percent (50%) disagree and oppose such a requirement that runs contrary to strong beliefs, while 10% more are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls.) Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter  or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 6-7, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology.

43% Say Random Choices From Phone Book Better Than Current Congress

With positive ratings for Congress at an all-time low, it may come as no surprise that a plurality of voters nationwide believes a group of people randomly selected from a telephone book would do a better job than the current legislators. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows that 43% believe a group of people randomly selected from the phone book would do a better job than the current Congress. Thirty-eight percent (38%) disagree with that assessment, while another 19% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 2-3, 2012 Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

67% Favor Ending U.S. Combat Role in Afghanistan by Next Year

Voters strongly favor the Obama administration’s plan to wrap up U.S. combat action in Afghanistan by the middle of next year, and most think there’s a good chance the plan will succeed as proposed. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 67% of Likely U.S. Voters favor ending the U.S. combat military mission in Afghanistan by the middle of next year. Just 22% are opposed to ending combat actions by then. Eleven percent (11%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters nationwide was conducted on February 2-3, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

59% Say Election Rules 'Rigged' To Help Congressional Incumbents

Fewer than half of voters nationwide still believe elections are generally fair. Most think the system is rigged to benefit incumbents in Congress.The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. voters shows that 48% believe elections are fair to voters, but nearly as many (42%) disagree. Ten percent (10%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 2-3, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

If Israel Attacks Iran, 48% Want U.S. to Help Israel

Voters nationwide remain firmly convinced that Iran is likely to develop a nuclear weapon in the near future, and if so, will use it against Israel. At the same time, most also think an Israeli attack on Iran is likely to happen within the next year.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows that 83% believe it is at least somewhat likely Iran will develop a nuclear weapon in the near future, including 50% who say that is Very Likely to happen. Only 11% say it’s Not Very or Not At All Likely Iran will develop a nuclear weapon soon. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 4-5, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

54% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law, 43% Say It Will Be Bad For U.S.

While a majority of U.S. voters continues to favor repeal of the national health care law, the number who believes it will be good for the country is at an all-time high. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 54% of Likely Voters at least somewhat favor repeal of the health care law, while 41% oppose repeal.  These figures include 39% who Strongly Favor repeal and 27% who Strongly Oppose it.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 4-5, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.