GOP Voters Favor Trump Over DeSantis Nearly 2-to-1
Most Republican voters like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, but when it comes to who should get the GOP’s 2024 nomination, they prefer former President Donald Trump by a 28-point margin.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 49% of Likely U.S. Voters view DeSantis favorably, including 25% who have a Very Favorable impression of Florida’s Republican governor. Forty-two percent (42%) view DeSantis unfavorably, including 27% with a Very Unfavorable opinion. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Among Republican voters, 70% have a favorable impression of DeSantis, including 37% with a Very Favorable opinion. However, if the choice for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination were between Trump and DeSantis, 58% of Republican voters would vote for Trump, while 30% would vote for DeSantis.
Among all Likely Voters, a head-to-head matchup of DeSantis against President Joe Biden shows a dead heat, with each getting 44% of the vote. Biden would get the votes of 75% of Democrats and DeSantis would get 73% of Republican voters while, among voters not affiliated with either major party, DeSantis would get 46% to Biden’s 38%.
The survey of 1,012 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on May 30-June 1, 2023 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
In a survey last month with a six-candidate GOP primary field – including former Vice President Mike Pence, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, as well as DeSantis – Trump got 62% support from Republican voters, compared to 17% for DeSantis and single digits for everyone else.
eSantis is viewed favorably by 35% of Democrats and 43% of unaffiliated voters. He gets unfavorable ratings from 55% of Democrats, 26% of Republicans and 48% of unaffiliated voters.
Forty-eight percent (48%) of all Likely Voters believe it is likely that DeSantis will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, including 12% who think it’s Very Likely. Forty-two percent (42%) say it’s unlikely DeSantis will win the GOP nomination, including 15% who consider it Not At All Likely.
Fifty-four percent (54%) of Republicans, 43% of Democrats and 47% of unaffiliated voters believe it’s at least somewhat likely DeSantis will win the Republican nomination next year. Interestingly, more Democrats (16%) than Republicans (10%) think a DeSantis nomination is Very Likely.
Another interesting finding is that, among all Likely Voters who say they would choose DeSantis over Trump as the GOP 2024 nominee, 40% would choose Biden over DeSantis in the general election.
DeSantis gets favorable ratings from more men (53%) than women voters (45%), but women are more likely to think DeSantis has a chance to win the 2024 Republican nomination. In a head-to-head matchup between Biden and DeSantis, Biden has a slight edge (43% to 42%) among women voters, while DeSantis wins men by 46%-44% margin.
DeSantis is viewed at least somewhat favorably by 54% of whites, 47% of black voters and 35% of other minorities. In a head-to-head 2024 matchup, DeSantis would get support from 51% of whites, 19% of black voters and 36% of other minorities, while Biden would get 40% of whites, 65% of black voters and 44% of other minorities.
Voters under 40 are most likely to think DeSantis has a shot at winning the 2024 Republican nomination, while those 65 and older are most likely to prefer Trump over DeSantis as the GOP nominee. In the general election matchup against Biden, DeSantis wins voters 65 and older by a 17-point margin, while Biden wins by an even wider margin, 56% to 28%, among voters under 40.
Breaking down the electorate by income categories, voters in the highest bracket – earning more than $200,000 a year – are most likely to prefer DeSantis over Trump as the 2024 GOP nominee, while Trump leads DeSantis among all voters with annual incomes below $100,000.
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The survey of 1,012 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on May 30-June 1, 2023 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research.
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