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Republicans Kemp, Walker Lead in Key Georgia Races

Less than two weeks before Election Day, Republicans lead in the closely watched midterm races for governor and U.S. Senator in Georgia. 

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and “The Absolute Truth” with Emerald Robinson finds that, if the Senate election were held today, 48% of Georgia Likely Voters would vote for the Republican, Herschel Walker, while 43% would vote to reelect the Democrat, Sen. Raphael Warnock. Four percent (4%) say they’d vote for some other candidate, while another four percent (4%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Walker’s lead is mainly due to his 14-point margin among independent voters. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Georgia Republican voters would vote for Walker and 81% of Democrats would vote for Warnock, while among voters not affiliated with either major party, Walker leads 49% to 35%.

In Georgia’s gubernatorial election, 51% of Likely Voters would reelect Republican Gov. Brian Kemp while 41% would vote for the Democratic challenger, former state Rep. Stacey Abrams.

Kemp gets stronger support from GOP voters, while also winning independents by a 17-point margin. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Republicans would vote for Kemp and 81% of Democrats would vote for Abrams, while among unaffiliated voters, Kemp leads 49%-32%.

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The survey of 1,053 Georgia Likely Voters was conducted on October 23-24, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports and “The Absolute Truth” with Emerald Robinson. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Georgia survey also found Republicans leading in other statewide races, as well as holding a 10-point lead on the generic ballot question. If the elections for Congress were held today, 49% of Georgia Likely Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 39% would vote for the Democratic candidate. Seven percent (7%) would vote for some other candidate and five percent (5%) are undecided. The GOP has a 19-point advantage, 46% to 29%, among unaffiliated voters on the congressional ballot.

Georgia voters were also asked several questions related to election integrity, a key issue in a state where the 2020 presidential vote was the subject of intense controversy:

– Fifty-five percent (55%) believe it is likely that cheating affected the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, including 32% who think it’s Very Likely. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of Georgia voters say it’s not likely cheating affected the 2020 election, including 28% who believe it’s Not At All Likely. Seventy-one percent (71%) of Georgia Republican voters think it’s at least somewhat likely cheating affected the 2020 outcome, while 59% of Democrats don’t think it’s likely. Among unaffiliated voters, 54% believe cheating likely affected the presidential outcome in 2020 and 39% don’t think it’s likely.

– Seventy-two percent (72%) of Georgia voters are confident that the upcoming elections in their state will be secure and fair, but 24% are not. More Democrats (82%) than Republicans (69%) or unaffiliated voters (63%) are at least somewhat confident that the midterm elections in Georgia will be secure and fair.

– Seventy-three percent (73%) agree that the electronic voting equipment used in Georgia are secure and accurately tabulate votes, while 22% disagree.

– Seventy-six percent (76%) agree that the barcode from voting machines accurately reflects their vote, but 19% disagree.

– Asked to agree or disagree with the statement, “I’m not confident my vote is secure, and I support a return to voting with all paper ballots,” 48% of Georgia voters agree, including 26% who Strongly Agree. Forty-five percent (45%) disagree, including 25% who Strongly Disagree.

The survey asked Georgia voters about a report from University of Michigan computer scientist J. Alex Halderman that the state’s voting system has a vulnerability that could be exploited to manipulate votes. That report has been sealed by the order of U.S. District Judge Amy Totenberg. Seventy-one percent (71%) of Georgia voters agree that Judge Totenberg should release the full and un-redacted Halderman Report, including 51% who Strongly Agree. Just 13% are against releasing the Halderman report, while another 15% are not sure.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) agree that Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and his office are doing a good job making sure the state’s 2022 mid-term elections run smoothly and securely. Twenty-one percent (21%) disagree and 11% are not sure. In his reelection campaign, Raffensperger holds a 10-point lead, 42% to 32%, over Democratic challenger, Bee Nguyen.

In other findings of the Georgia survey:

– President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is underwater. A majority (51%) of Georgia voters disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president, including 44% who Strongly Disapprove. Forty-seven percent (47%) approve of Biden’s performance, including 24% who Strongly Approve.

– If the 2024 presidential election were a rematch between Biden and former President Donald Trump, just 39% of Georgia voters would vote to reelect Biden, while 47% would vote for Trump.

– Fifty-six percent (56%) of Georgia voters plan to vote early, and nine percent (9%) will vote by absentee ballot. Only 28% plan to vote in person on Election Day.

– The economy remains the leading issue for Georgia voters, 85% of whom are concerned about the economy, including 61% who are Very Concerned.

– Eighty-three percent (83%) of Georgia voters say energy policy will be an important issue in this year’s congressional elections, while 81% consider violent crime an important issue, 77% say illegal immigration will be an important issue, and 67% believe abortion rights will be an important issue in the midterms.

– Fifty-three percent (53%) of Georgia voters agree with a statement earlier this year by longtime Trump ally Roger Stone that there is “a group of politicized thugs at the top of the FBI who are using the FBI as Joe Biden’s personal Gestapo.”

Georgia voters are divided over the FBI’s recent seizure of MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell’s personal cellphone. Forty-four percent (44%) approve of the FBI seizing Lindell’s phone, while 41% disapprove and another 15% are not sure.

In what may be a key indicator of this year’s midterm election results, Republicans have a clear edge when it comes to what voters think is best for the next session of Congress.

Republican candidates for governor and U.S. Senate in Nevada appear poised to defeat Democratic incumbents in next month’s midterm election.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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The survey of 1,053 Georgia Likely Voters was conducted on October 23-24, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports and “The Absolute Truth” with Emerald Robinson. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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