If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

POLITICS

Generic Congressional Ballot

GOP Congressional Lead Down to 1 Point: Sponsored by Miranda Devine's LAPTOP FROM HELL: Hunter Biden, Big Tech, and the Dirty Secrets the President Tried to Hide

The 2022 midterm elections are now 39 days away, and Republicans have a one-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 44% would vote for the Democrat. Just five percent (5%) would vote for some other candidate, but another seven percent (7%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The GOP lead is down one point from last week, when they led 44% to 42%. Republicans have led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year, although their lead has narrowed significantly since mid-July, when they led by as much as 10 points.

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

In September 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a three-point advantage (46% to 43%) in the generic ballot question.  As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on September 25-29, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

In the latest findings, Republicans have lost the advantage they previously held among independent voters. Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, while 85% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 38% would vote Democrat and 37% would vote Republican, while 11% would vote for some other candidate and 15% are undecided. In July, the GOP held a 17-point advantage, 44% to 27%, among unaffiliated voters.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of whites, 19% of black voters and 40% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of black voters, 39% of whites and 46% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” has narrowed slightly in the latest findings, with men (48%) now six points more likely than women voters (42%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was seven points last week.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a 12-point margin, 49% to 37%, but voters ages 40-64 favor Republicans 45% to 43%, and the GOP lead is 17 points – 55% to 38% – among voters 65 and older.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Democrats do best among voters with annual incomes over $100,000, while Republicans have their largest advantage – 46% to 43% – among those earning between $50,000 and $100,000 a year.

Democrats now lead among both government employees and private sector workers, while among retirees, the GOP leads 52% to 41%.

Although a majority of Americans agree with President Biden that the COVID-19 pandemic is over, most Democrats still want to make vaccines against the virus mandatory.  

With the stock market tumbling, a majority of Americans think it’s likely there’s an economic depression in the future.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on September 25-29, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.

We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.

Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.

To learn more about our methodology, click here.