Generic Congressional Ballot

The Democratic Party’s lead over Republicans has narrowed in the battle to control the House of Representatives.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 43% would vote for the Republican. Four percent (4%) say they would vote for some other candidate, while six percent (6%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

The net advantage for Democrats has decreased since last week, when they led by eight points, 49% to 41%. The position for Republicans is now a net eight points worse than before the November 2024 election, when they led by three points (48% to 45%) and won just a razor-thin House majority.

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The survey of 1,819 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on September 17 and 20-23, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Democrats’ lead is due both to greater partisan intensity and a six-point margin among independents. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Democrats would vote for their own party’s candidate in the next congressional elections, compared to 83% of Republicans who would vote for the GOP candidate.

Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 43% would vote for Democrats and 37% for Republicans, while eight percent (8%) say they would vote for third-party congressional candidates and 13% are undecided.

The “gender gap” is a net nine points. Women voters prefer Democrats by a 50% to 40% margin, while men are almost evenly divided, with 46% for Democrats and 45% for Republicans.

Forty-six percent (46%) of whites, 62% of black voters, 50% of Hispanics and 29% of other minorities would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 46% of whites, 21% of black voters, 37% of Hispanics and 68% of other minorities would vote Republican.

Democrats lead by 15 points, 52% to 37%, among voters in their 30s. Republicans lead by one point, 45% to 44%, among those ages 50 to 64.

Ninety percent (90%) of self-identified liberal voters favor Democrats, while 76% of conservatives would vote Republican. Among moderate voters, Democrats lead by 29 points, 58% to 29%.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Democrats lead by 17 points, 55% to 38%, among voters earning more than $200,000 a year.

Ninety percent (90%) of those who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 82% of Donald Trump supporters would vote Republican.

Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown narrowly leads incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted in the special election for a U.S. Senate seat in Ohio. 

An agreement for American security rights in Greenland is approved by a majority of voters, although most voters still don’t see President Donald Trump doing a good job on national security.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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