Generic Congressional Ballot

The Democratic Party has widened its lead over Republicans in the battle to control the House of Representatives.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 41% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 36% would vote for the Republican. Seven percent (7%) say they would vote for some other candidate, while another 16% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

The advantage for Democrats has grown by one point since July, when they led by four points, 46% to 42%. The position for Republicans is now a net eight points worse than before the November 2024 election, when they led by three points (48% to 45%) and won just a razor-thin House majority.

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The survey of 2,231 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on August 23-27 and 30, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

It is noteworthy that the undecided vote has more than doubled from seven percent (7%) in the previous survey. This may be an anomaly, but it could indicate that some voters are reassessing their choices in the wake of recent primary elections.

The Democrats’ lead is almost entirely due to their nine-point margin among independents. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Democrats would vote for their own party’s candidate in the next congressional elections, compared to 75% of Republicans who would vote for the GOP candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 35% would vote for Democrats and 26% for Republicans, while 14% say they would vote for third-party congressional candidates and 24% are undecided. In July, the Democrats led among unaffiliated voters by just three points.

The “gender gap,” which was a net 14 points in July, has narrowed significantly. Women voters now prefer Democrats by a 42% to 35% margin, while among men, 40% favor Democrats and 38% would vote Republican if the elections for Congress were held today.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of whites, 61% of black voters, 48% of Hispanics and 36% of other minorities would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 40% of whites, 23% of black voters, 31% of Hispanics and 34% of other minorities would vote Republican.

Democrats lead by 10 points among voters in their 30s. More than 20% of voters 50 and older now say they are not sure which party’s candidate they would vote for in the congressional election.

Breaking down the electorate by income brackets, Republicans do best among voters earning between $100,000 and $200,000 a year, while Democrats enjoy their widest leads at the top and bottom of the income scale.

Among those who voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, 69% would vote for a Republican congressional candidate, while 74% of Kamala Harris voters would vote for Democrats.

President Trump earned a monthly job approval of 43% in August, unchanged from July. Fifty-five percent (56%) disapproved of his job performance last month, up one point from July.

Democrats have a slight edge over Republicans in terms of whether voters think their votes make a difference. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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