Generic Congressional Ballot

The Democratic Party now leads Republicans by five points in the battle to control the House of Representatives.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 43% would vote for the Republican. Four percent (4%) say they would vote for some other candidate and six percent (6%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

The net advantage for Democrats has increased by one point since last week, when they led by four points, 48% to 44%. 

The position for Republicans is now a net eight points worse than before the November 2024 election, when they led by three points (48% to 45%) and won just a razor-thin House majority.

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The survey of 1,755 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 15 and 18-21, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of Democrats would vote for their own party’s candidate in the next congressional elections, compared to 83% of Republicans who would vote for the GOP candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 40% would vote for Democrats and 38% for Democrats, while nine percent (9%) would vote third-party and 13% are undecided.

Eighty-three percent (83%) of all Likely Voters say they are excited about voting in this year’s elections for Congress, including 58% who are Very Excited. More Democrats (68%) than Republicans (56%) or unaffiliated voters (50%) describe themselves as Very Excited about the midterm elections.

The “gender gap” is now a net 26 points. Women voters prefer Democrats by a 53% to 36% margin, while men favor Republicans, 50% to 41%.

Forty-three percent (43%) of whites, 72% of black voters, 46% of Hispanics and 45% of other minorities would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 47% of whites, 21% of black voters, 39% of Hispanics and 45% of other minorities would vote Republican.

Democrats lead by 19 points, 52% to 33%, among voters under 30. Republicans lead by four points, 44% to 40% among those in their 30s and have a one-point lead among voters ages 65 and older. A majority of voters 50 and older say they’re Very Excited about voting in the midterms.

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of self-identified Very Liberal voters favor Democrats, while 80% of Very Conservative voters would vote Republican. Among moderate voters, 55% would vote for Democrats and 31% support Republicans. Liberal voters are most likely than conservatives or moderates to describe themselves as Very Excited about the midterm elections.

Eighty-nine percent (89%) of those who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 79% of Donald Trump voters would vote Republican.

Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton is now tied with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the battle for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas. 

The issue of crime is important to voters in this year’s midterm elections, and Democrats now lead the GOP in terms of trust on the issue. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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