Generic Congressional Ballot

The Democratic Party has expanded its lead over Republicans to five points in the battle to control the House of Representatives.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 49% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 44% would vote for the Republican. Two percent (2%) say they would vote for some other candidate and another five percent (5%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The net advantage for Democrats has increased by two points since last week, when they led by three points, 47% to 44%.

The position for Republicans is now a net eight points worse than before the November 2024 election, when they led by three points (48% to 45%) and won just a razor-thin House majority. 

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The survey of 1,781 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 1 and 4-7, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ninety-six percent (96%) of Democrats would vote for their own party’s candidate in the next congressional elections, compared to 92% of Republicans who would vote for the GOP candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 45% would vote for Republicans and 40% for Democrats, while 11% are undecided.

The “gender gap” is now a net 17 points. Women voters prefer Democrats by a 53% to 41% margin, while men favor Republicans, 48% to 43%.

Forty-two percent (42%) of whites, 78% of black voters, 49% of Hispanics and 55% of other minorities would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 51% of whites, 14% of black voters, 47% of Hispanics and 22% of other minorities would vote Republican.

Democrats lead by 39 points, 63% to 24%, among voters under 30, while Republicans lead by 34 points, 66% to 32%, among those 65 and older.

Eighty-nine percent (89%) of self-identified Very Liberal voters favor Democrats, while 84% of Very Conservative voters would vote Republican. Among moderate voters, 58% would vote for Democrats and 32% support Republicans.

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of those who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 86% of Donald Trump voters would vote Republican.

South Carolina Republican Sen. Darline Graham still leads Democratic challenger Annie Andrews in the contest for the seat formerly held by the late Sen. Lindsey Graham.

Democrat challenger Troy Jackson has a two-point lead over Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who is seeking her sixth term in the Senate. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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