If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

POLITICS

Generic Congressional Ballot

GOP Now Ahead by 8 Points on Congressional Ballot : Sponsored by Miranda Devine's LAPTOP FROM HELL: Hunter Biden, Big Tech, and the Dirty Secrets the President Tried to Hide

The 2022 midterm elections are now 137 days away, and Republicans have an eight-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 40% would vote for the Democrat. Just three percent (3%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The Republican lead has increased by three points since last week, when they led 46%-41%. The GOP has led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year.

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

In June 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a four-point advantage (45% to 41%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on June 19-23, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Republican lead on the congressional ballot is due both to greater GOP partisan intensity and a 15-point advantage among independents. While 90% of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, only 83% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 45% would vote Republican and 30% would vote Democrat, while eight percent (8%) would vote for some other candidate and 17% are undecided.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of whites, 20% of Black voters and 45% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Black voters, 35% of whites and 40% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” has widened in the latest findings, with men (54%) now 12 points more likely than women voters (42%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was eight points last week.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a margin of 49% to 37%, but 51% of voters ages 40-64 and 57% of those 65 and older would vote Republican if the election were held today.

Republican support is highest among entrepreneurs and retirees, while Democrats do best among government employees.

Four months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, voters are divided over the U.S. response to the war, and few approve of President Joe Biden’s handling of the situation.

Most voters clearly aren’t buying President Biden’s explanations about high gas prices and say he’s done a poor job of handling the economy overall.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on June 19-23, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.

We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.

Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.

To learn more about our methodology, click here.