Generic Congressional Ballot

The Democratic Party now leads Republicans by four points in the battle to control the House of Representatives.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 42% would vote for the Republican. Five percent (5%) say they would vote for some other candidate, while another eight percent (7%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

The advantage for Democrats has decreased two points since May, when they led by six points, 47% to 41%. The position for Republicans is now a net seven points worse than before the November 2024 election, when they led by three points (48% to 45%) and won just a razor-thin House majority.

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The survey of 2,224 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on June 24-25 and 28-July 1, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Democrats’ lead is due to both greater partisan intensity and their three-point margin among independents. Eighty-six percent (86%) of Democrats would vote for their own party’s candidate in the next congressional elections, compared to 82% of Republicans who would vote for the GOP candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 37% would vote for Democrats and 34% for Republicans, while 13% say they would vote for third-party congressional candidates and 16% are undecided.

The “gender gap” is a net 14 points, with women voters preferring Democrats by a 49% to 38% margin, while men slightly favor Republicans, 45% to 43%.

Forty-five percent (45%) of whites, 61% of black voters, 39% of Hispanics and 41% of other minorities would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 44% of whites, 27% of black voters, 48% of Hispanics and 28% of other minorities would vote Republican.

Voters under 30 favor Democrats by a 14-point margin, while Republicans have a two-point lead among those ages 40 to 64.

Eighty-eight percent (88%) of self-identified liberal voters would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 76% of conservatives would vote Republican. Among moderate voters, Democrats lead by a 29-point margin, 54% to 25%.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of government employees and 44% of private sector workers would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while a slight plurality of retirees prefer Republicans.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Democrats hold their widest lead among voters earning less than $30,000 a year.

Among voters who say America is going in the right direction, 80% favor Republican congressional candidates, but among those who think the country is on the wrong track, 69% would vote for Democrats.

Among those who voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, 82% would vote for Republican congressional candidates, while 87% of Kamala Harris voters prefer Democrats.

The Supreme Court’s recent decision on a key immigration case – upholding Trump’s authority to end Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for thousands of migrants – has majority approval from voters. 

American voters continue to view domestic terrorism as a greater threat than foreign terrorism, and see the far right as more dangerous than the far left.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only. 

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