Generic Congressional Ballot

The Democratic Party begins 2026 with a wider lead over Republicans in the battle to control the House of Representatives.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 41% would vote for the Republican. Four percent (4%) say they would vote for some other candidate, while another nine percent (9%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

The advantage for Democrats has doubled since November, when they led by three points, 45% to 42%. The position for Republicans is now a net nine points worse than before the November 2024 election, when they led by three points (48% to 45%) and won just a razor-thin House majority.

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The survey of 2,273 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on January 7-8 and 11-14, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Democrats’ lead is due both to greater partisan intensity and an eight-point margin among independents. Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Democrats would vote for their own party’s candidate in the next congressional elections, compared to 82% of Republicans who would vote for the GOP candidate. Republican voters are more likely than Democrats to answer “not sure.” Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 41% would vote for Democrats and 33% for Republicans, while nine percent (9%) say they would vote for third-party congressional candidates and 18% are undecided.

The “gender gap” is a factor, as women voters now prefer Democrats by a 10-point margin (49% to 39%) while among men, 46% favor Democrats and 43% prefer Republicans.
Forty-five percent (45%) of whites, 56% of black voters, 49% of Hispanics and 55% of other minorities would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 45% of whites, 27% of black voters, 36% of Hispanics and 32% of other minorities would vote Republican.

Democrats now lead by a whopping 22 points – 53% to 31% – among voters under 30, while those ages 50 to 64 favor Republicans by a narrow margin, 45% to 43%.
Ninety percent (90%) of self-identified liberal voters would vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 71% of conservatives would vote Republican. Among moderate voters, Democrats lead by a 24-point margin, 54% to 30%.

A majority (52%) of government employees would vote for Democrats, as would 46% of private sector workers and 48% of retirees. Republicans have a six-point advantage among entrepreneurs.

College-educated voters are more likely to prefer Democratic congressional candidates.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Democrats lead by a 22-point margin among voters earning less than $30,000 a year, but are tied with Republicans among those with annual incomes between $100,000 and $200,000.

Among those who voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, 81% would vote for Republican congressional candidates, while 88% of Kamala Harris voters prefer Democrats.

Widespread protests in Iran against Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei’s government have many American voters hoping that the end may be near for the Iranian regime. 

The influence of radical Islam in the United States is a cause for concern for a majority of voters, who oppose Muslims forming separate communities here. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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