If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

POLITICS

Generic Congressional Ballot

Republicans Maintain 3-Point Congressional Lead: Sponsored by Miranda Devine's LAPTOP FROM HELL: Hunter Biden, Big Tech, and the Dirty Secrets the President Tried to Hide

The 2022 midterm elections are now 88 days away, and Republicans still have a three-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 43% would vote for the Democrat. Just three percent (3%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The GOP lead is unchanged from last week, when they led 46%-43%. Republicans have led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year, although their lead has narrowed significantly over the past three weeks.

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

In August 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a four-point advantage (45% to 41%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber. =

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on August 7-11, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Republican lead is mainly due to a seven-point advantage among independent voters. Eighty-six percent (86%) of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, while 83% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 40% would vote Republican and 33% would vote Democrat, while nine percent (9%) would vote for some other candidate and 18% are undecided.

Fifty percent (50%) of whites, 29% of black voters and 43% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Fifty-five percent (55%) of black voters, 41% of whites and 42% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” is slightly narrower in the latest findings, with men (49%) now seven points more likely than women voters (42%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was eight points last week.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a 13-point margin, 49% to 36%, but voters ages 40-64 favor Republicans 49% to 41%, and the GOP lead is 11 points – 52% to 41% – among voters 65 and older.

Republican support is 14 points among retirees, while government employees favor Democrats by a five-point margin.

Republicans lead by eight points, 49%-41%, among voters with incomes between $30,000 and $50,000 a year, while Democrats have a 12-point advantage, 51% to 39%, among voters with annual incomes above $200,000.

Who do political parties represent, their own voters or outside interests? Republicans care about this question more than Democratic voters do.

Concerns about election cheating remain high, and a majority of voters favor the procedure by which Arizona “audited” disputed 2020 presidential election results in Maricopa County.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on August 7-11, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.

We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.

Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.

To learn more about our methodology, click here.