Generic Congressional Ballot

Although the next midterm elections are still more than a year away, a slender plurality of voters now favor the Democratic Party, which hopes to recapture a House majority in November 2026.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 44% would vote for the Republican. Nine percent (9%) say they would vote for some other candidate, while another three percent (3%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Republicans won their House majority in November 2022, when the final generic congressional ballot survey showed them with a five-point lead. The GOP maintained House control last November, when the final poll showed them leading by three points.

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The survey of 1,012 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on May 14-15 and 18, 2025 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ninety-three percent (93%) say they’re likely to vote in next year’s midterm congressional elections, including 73% who are Very Likely to vote in the midterms. Among the Very Likely voters, Democrats lead by a three-point margin, with 48% to the GOP’s 45%. 

Seventy-three percent (73%) believe it makes a difference whether Republicans or Democrats are in charge of Congress, while 15% don’t think it makes much difference and 12% are not sure. Among voters who believe it matters which party controls Congress, Democrats lead by a 48% to 47% margin.

Democrats lead on the generic ballot question mainly because of a slight advantage in partisan intensity. Eighty-eight percent (88%) of Democratic voters would vote for their party’s congressional candidate, compared to 85% of GOP voters who would vote for the Republican if the midterm election were held today. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 39% would vote for the Republican congressional candidate and 35% would vote for the Democrat ifthe election were today. Twenty-one percent (21%) of unaffiliated voters say they’d vote for a third-party congressional candidate instead.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Republicans, 75% of Democrats and 73% of unaffiliated voters say they’re Very Likely to vote in next year’s midterm congressional elections.

Eighty-one percent (81%) of Republicans, 77% of Democrats and 59% of unaffiliated voters believe it makes a difference whether Republicans or Democrats are in charge of Congress.

Women voters favor Democratic congressional candidates by an 11-point margin, 49% to 38%, while men prefer Republicans by an eight-point margin, 49% to 41%.

If the elections for Congress were held today, 44% of whites, 64% of black voters, 37% of Hispanics and 29% of other minorities would vote for the Democrat. Forty-seven percent (47%) of whites, 20% of black voters, 51% of Hispanics and 48% of other minorities would vote for the Republican congressional candidate.

Democrats lead by an 11-point margin, 53% to 43%, among voters 65 and older. Republicans do best among voters in their 40s, who favor the GOP by an eight-point margin, 44% to 36%.

Eighty-seven percent (87%) of self-identified liberal voters prefer the Democratic candidate, while 76% would vote for the Republican if the midterm elections were today. Among moderate voters, 57% would vote for the Democrat and 27% for the Republican.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Democrats lead by a whopping 14-point margin – 53% to 39% – among voters in the top bracket, earning more than $200,000 a year. Republicans do best among voters with annual incomes between $50,000 and $100,000, who favor the GOP by a 48% to 40% margin.

Among those who voted for Kamala Harris in last year’s presidential election, 81% say they’re Very Likely to vote in next year’s midterm congressional elections, compared to 73% of those who voted for Donald Trump.

Efforts by White House officials to conceal former President Joe Biden’s cognitive impairment constitute a serious scandal, according to a majority of voters who also believe the news media were part of the cover-up. 

Voters are almost evenly divided over how Trump is handling the war between Russia and Ukraine, with half saying he’s likely to succeed in getting a peace deal to end the war.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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