Wednesday, January 03, 2018
Nearly half of Democrats think there’s a good chance President Trump won’t make it to the end of his first term in office, but two-out-of-three Republicans see four more years in Trump’s future.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds Likely U.S. Voters closely divided when given three possible scenarios for the president: 34% think he is more likely to be reelected in 2020, while nearly as many (31%) see a higher likelihood of him being defeated by the Democratic presidential nominee that year. Twenty-nine percent (29%), however, believe Trump is more likely to be impeached before serving his first full term in office. Three percent (3%) see an unspecified something else in the cards. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Sixty-five percent (65%) of Republicans think given these three options that Trump is more likely to be reelected to a second term. Among Democrats, 42% predict he will be defeated by their nominee in 2020, but a plurality (45%) thinks he is more likely to be impeached instead.
Voters not affiliated with either major party are conflicted: 28% think Trump’s reelection is more likely; 33% say the Democrat will win next time out, while 31% see impeachment as the more likely result.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 27-28, 2017 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Trump’s job approval numbers at the close of 2017 were nearly identical to Barack Obama’s at the end of his first year in the White House.
Male voters see Trump’s reelection as the more likely outcome. Women lean in the direction of impeachment. Those under 40 think the Democratic nominee is more likely to defeat the president in 2020. Older voters expect Trump to be reelected.
Forty-eight percent (48%) of blacks believe Trump is more likely to be impeached before serving his full term in office, a view shared by 26% of whites and 28% of other minority voters.
Higher-income voters are the least likely to see impeachment in Trump’s future.
Eighty-nine percent (89%) of voters who Strongly Approve of the job Trump is doing think he is more likely to be reelected. Among those who Strongly Disapprove of the president’s job performance, 53% predict impeachment.
Former Vice President Joe Biden is the favorite among Democratic voters to challenge Trump in 2020, with Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders a distant second.
Forty percent (40%) of all voters now say the country is headed in the right direction. These weekly findings generally ran in the mid- to upper 20s during the final year of Obama’s presidency.
Rasmussen Reports’ Economic Confidence and Consumer Spending Indexes are at record highs. We will be updating those numbers on Friday.
With the unemployment rate down to a 12-year low, confidence in the job market among all Americans is at its highest level ever in Rasmussen Reports surveying.
For the first time in eight years of tracking, more than half of homeowners see a rising home value in their future.
Yet while more than half of Americans are feeling good about 2018, they aren’t as high on the upcoming year as they have been in recent years.
Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.
We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.
Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.
To learn more about our methodology, click here.