Elections

Romney Leads the GOP Pack – For Now

Generally, at this stage of the game, it’s mostly about name recognition, and Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential nominee in 2012, is the leader in the race to be the party’s standard-bearer in 2016.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey asked Likely Republican Voters to choose among nine of the early Republican wannabes if their state primary were held right now, and Romney earns 24% support. Three candidates are closely grouped together for second place: former Florida Governor Jeb Bush at 13%, retired neurosurgeon and conservative columnist Ben Carson with 12% of the vote and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker at 11%.

Earning single-digit support are Kentucky Senator Rand Paul (7%), New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (7%), Florida Senator Marco Rubio (5%) and former Texas Governor Rick Perry (5%). Four percent (4%) of GOP voters like some other candidate, and 12% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 787 Likely Republican Voters was conducted on January 18-19, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Bush vs. Romney, and the Winner Among GOP Voters Is…

For most voters, it’s the battle of the best-known last names on the Republican side. For many GOP voters, it’s the battle of the moderates seeking the party’s 2016 presidential nomination. Call it what you will: Right now, Mitt Romney holds a double-digit lead over Jeb Bush in a head-to-head matchup.

If the 2016 Republican presidential primary were held in their state right now and Romney and Bush were the only names on the ballot, 49% of Likely Republican Voters would choose the party’s 2012 presidential nominee, while 32% would opt instead for the former Florida governor. But a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that a sizable 19% are undecided given only these two candidates to choose from. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 787 Likely Republican Voters was conducted on January 18-19, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters Think GOP Needs A Fresh Face in 2016

Most voters – including Republicans – think the GOP should start fresh during the next presidential election. But a sizable number of voters also express concern about families from both sides of the political aisle holding too much influence.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 64% of Likely U.S. Voters believe Republicans should look for a fresh face to run for president in 2016. Just 10% think the GOP should promote a candidate who has run in the past. Twenty-five percent (25%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 28, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Republicans Aren't Thrilled by Another Bush Candidacy

GOP voters aren’t enthused about Jeb Bush running for president in 2016 and feel even more strongly that his family’s history in the White House makes him a less attractive candidate to vote for.

Just 33% of Likely Republican Voters nationwide believe Bush should run for president in 2016, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey. Just as many (34%) disagree, while another 33% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 28, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Louisiana Senate Runoff: Cassidy (R) 56%, Landrieu (D) 40%

Republican Congressman Bill Cassidy still holds a double-digit lead over incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu going into tomorrow’s Louisiana Senate runoff.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Louisiana Voters shows Cassidy leading Landrieu by 16 points – 56% to 40%. Four percent (4%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters in Louisiana was conducted on December 2-4, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Clinton Still Leads Democrats, GOP Race Wide Open for 2016

Hillary Clinton remains the heavy favorite for her party’s presidential nomination in 2016, but the Republican race is still in flux less than two years before the election.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 62% of Likely Democratic Voters would choose Clinton if the 2016 Democratic presidential primary were held in their state today. U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts is a distant second with 17% support. Vice President Joe Biden draws seven percent (7%) of the vote, while former Virginia Senator Jim Webb and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley are each the choice of just two percent (2%) of Democratic voters. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on November 20-21, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

2014 Midterm Elections: How Did We Do in the Governor’s Races?

There were governor’s races in 36 states this fall, and as usual we polled them all. But as in the case of the Senate races, the ones that we determined were not competitive were only polled once or twice at most.

A couple states we didn’t revisit for this reason surprised us. Democratic nominee Anthony Brown seemed a shoo-in in July in deep blue Maryland, but Republican hopeful Larry Hogan picked up momentum in October and won instead. In Vermont, incumbent Democrat Peter Shumlin is ahead as we expected, but since neither candidate got more than 50% of the vote, the state legislature will make the final decision.

How Did We Do in the Senate Races?

There were 36 U.S. Senate races this year, and as usual most of them weren’t close and weren’t polled much, if at all. We pride ourselves on polling every race at least once, although we generally looked at ones that weren’t expected to be close only once or twice at most. That was a mistake in the case of Virginia where a popular Democratic incumbent ended up winning by less than a point.

But we clearly saw the Republican wave coming, although the margins in the races in some cases proved to be bigger than some of our final polls projected.

56% of GOP Voters Felt ‘Compelled’ to Vote Vs. 43% of Democrats

Republicans were the most enthusiastic voters this election cycle as the final results indicate. The economy and the overall competence of the government were the two most important issues for all voters.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of Likely Republican Voters say they felt more compelled to vote this year than in previous years, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Forty-one percent (41%) of GOP voters say they didn’t feel this way.

By comparison, just 43% of Democrats felt more compelled to vote this year, but 48% did not. Similarly, among voters not affiliated with either major party, 44% felt more motivated to vote versus 49% who didn’t share this motivation. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available onTwitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on November 4-5, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Governor Races Scramble Down to the Wire

While they may not determine which party controls the U.S. Senate, 2014’s gubernatorial races have provided plenty of excitement and will have significant consequences for their states.

Overall, there are 36 governor races this year, including nine Toss-Ups, five that Lean Republican, two that Lean Democrat, 11 that are Safe Republican, eight that are Safe Democrat and one that Leans Independent.

Connecticut Governor: Malloy (D) 48%, Foley (R) 47%

Does Connecticut Governor Dan Malloy have a chance to keep his job after all?

The final Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Connecticut Voters finds Malloy picking up 48% of the vote to Republican Tom Foley’s 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 977 Likely Voters in Connecticut was conducted on October 29-30, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Iowa Governor: Branstad (R) 55%, Hatch (D) 37%

Iowa Republican Governor Terry Branstad looks comfortably on his way to reelection next Tuesday.

This year’s final Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters shows Branstad with 55% of the vote to Democratic challenger Jack Hatch’s 37%. Three percent (3%) like another candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 990 Likely Voters in Iowa was conducted on October 28-30, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Alaska Governor: Walker (I) 50%, Parnell (R) 43%

Independent Bill Walker remains ahead of Republican Governor Sean Parnell in the final days of Alaska’s gubernatorial contest.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 887 Likely Voters in Alaska was conducted on October 27-30, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New Hampshire Governor: Hassan (D) 51%, Havenstein (R) 42%

Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan appears on her way to reelection in New Hampshire in the closing days of that contest.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 940 Likely Voters in New Hampshire was conducted on October 29-30, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New Hampshire Senate: Shaheen (D) 52%, Brown (R) 45%

Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen remains ahead of Republican challenger Scott Brown heading into the final weekend of New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate race.

Shaheen picks up 52% of the vote to Brown’s 45% in the final Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely New Hampshire Voters. One percent (1%) prefer another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 940 Likely Voters in New Hampshire was conducted on October 29-30, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Iowa Senate: Ernst (R) 48%, Braley (D) 47%

Republican Joni Ernst and Democrat Bruce Braley are in a near tie in the closing days of Iowa’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters shows Ernst with 48% of the vote and Braley with 47%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate in the race, and another three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 990 Likely Voters in Iowa was conducted on October 28-30, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Alaska Senate: Sullivan (R) 47%, Begich (D) 42%

Republican challenger Dan Sullivan has pulled to his biggest lead yet over Democratic incumbent Mark Begich in the final Rasmussen Reports survey of Alaska’s U.S. Senate race.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.)

The survey of 887 Likely Voters in Alaska was conducted on October 27-30, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Arkansas Governor: Hutchinson (R) 50%, Ross (D) 43%

Republican Asa Hutchinson has extended his lead over Democrat Mike Ross in the race to be Arkansas’ next governor.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Arkansas Voters shows Hutchinson with 50% support to Ross’ 43%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 967 Likely Voters in Arkansas was conducted on October 27-29, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

North Carolina Senate: Hagan (D) 47%, Tillis (R) 46%

Kay Hagan, long viewed as perhaps the Senate’s most endangered Democrat, is still hanging in there in the closing days of North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 982 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted on October 28-29, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Arkansas Senate: Cotton (R) 51%, Pryor (D) 44%

The clock is running out for Democrat Mark Pryor to keep from losing his U.S. Senate seat in Arkansas to Republican Congressman Tom Cotton.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Arkansas Voters shows Cotton with 51% of the vote to Pryor’s 44%. Four percent (4%) like some other candidate in the race, and two percent (2%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. 

The survey of 967 Likely Voters in Arkansas was conducted on October 27-29, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.