Iowa Senate: Turek Leads by 5 Points

Democrat state Rep. Josh Turek has a narrow lead over U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson in the race to fill the Iowa Senate seat vacated by the retirement of Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 45% of Likely Iowa voters would vote for Turek, while 40% would vote for Hinson. Four percent (4%) say they would vote for Libertarian candidate Thomas Laehn, and 11% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

Turek’s five-point lead is remarkable in a state Donald Trump won by a 13-point margin in 2024.Turek gets support from 83% of Iowa’s Democratic voters, as well as 14% of Republicans and 49% of voters not affiliated with either major party. Seventy-five percent (75%) of Republicans would vote for Hinson, along with five percent (5%) of Democrats and 28% of unaffiliated voters. Eighteen percent (18%) of unaffiliated voters are still undecided.

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The survey of 1,031 Iowa Likely Voters was conducted on September 8-10, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The “gender gap” in Iowa is a net 14 points. Women voters favor Turek by an 11-point margin (48% to 37%) while Hinson leads by three points (44% to 41%) among men.

Forty-four percent (44%) of whites, 66% of black voters, 52% of Hispanics and 36% of other minorities would vote for Turek, while 42% of whites, 16% of black voters, 41% of Hispanics and 20% of other minorities would vote for Hinson.

Turek leads by 28 points (50% to 22%) among voters under 30, while Hinson’s strongest showing is a 47% to 39% lead among those in their 40s.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of voters who self-identify as Very Liberal would vote for Turek, while 83% of Very Conservative voters would vote for Hinson. Moderate voters favor Turek by a nearly 3-to-1 margin, but 18% of moderate voters are undecided.

Married voters and those with children at home slightly favor Hinson, but Turek leads by 12 points among unmarried voters and by eight points among those without children at home.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, 71% of voters in the highest bracket – earning more than $200,000 – would vote for Turek, while Hinson leads by 26 points (56% to 30%) among those with annual incomes between $100,000 and $200,000.

Eighty percent (80%) of those who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election would vote for Turek, but just 67% of Trump voters would vote for Hinson.

Less than two months before the midterm elections, nearly a third of voters are still making up their minds. 

An agreement to secure billions of barrels of oil reserves in Venezuela, recently announced by Trump, meets with approval from a majority of American voters. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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