Election 2026: Alaska Senate

Alaska’s incumbent Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan is tied with Democratic challenger Mary Peltola in a contest where ranked-choice voting will determine the winner with four names on the November ballot.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 39% of Likely Alaska voters would vote for Sullivan, while 39% would vote for Peltola, who formerly was the state’s sole at-large representative in the U.S. House. Seven percent (7%) would vote for Republican Daniel J. Sullivan, whose presence on the ballot has brought accusations of Democrat skullduggery. Six percent (6%) would vote for Republican “perennial candidate” Gerald Heikes, and nine percent (9%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The incumbent Sen. Sullivan is supported by 59% of Republican voters as well as 15% of Democrats and 36% of voters not affiliated with either major party. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Democrats would vote for Peltola, as would 18% of Republicans and 34% of unaffiliated voters. Twenty percent (20%) of Republicans would vote for either Heikes (11%) or the other Sullivan (9%). Twenty-four percent (24%) of unaffiliated voters are not sure which candidate they would vote for.

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The survey of 1,188 Alaska Likely Voters was conducted on September 13-14, 2026 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system was adopted in 2020, and is the subject of a repeal referendum this fall. However, in the current scenario – with three Republicans on the ballot and Peltola as the lone Democrat – Sen. Sullivan may benefit more from second-choice votes by those whose first choice is one of the other two GOP candidates.

The “gender gap” is reversed in the Alaska Senate race, with men favoring Peltola by a four-point margin (43% to 39%), while Sen. Sullivan leads 38% to 34% among women voters.

Sullivan is supported by 41% of whites, five percent (5%) of black voters, 26% of Hispanics and 40% of other minorities. Peltola is favored by 41% of whites, 64% of black voters, 48% of Hispanics and 29% of other minorities. A significant percentage of both black and Hispanic voters say they would vote for either Heikes or the “other” Sullivan.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of voters ages 50 to 64 would vote for Sen. Sullivan, while Peltola leads by an eight-point margin, 46% to 38%, among those 65 and older.

Breaking the electorate down by income categories, Sullivan leads among voters earning between $50,000 and $100,000, while Peltola leads with voters in every other bracket.

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of those who voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election would vote for Peltola, while 61% of Donald Trump voters would vote for Sen. Sullivan.

No issue will be more important than the economy in deciding how they vote in this year’s midterm elections, most voters say.

The Democratic Party continues to hold a five-point lead over Republicans in the battle to control the House of Representatives.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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