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Trump vs. Clinton Is Still Neck and Neck

Monday, October 07, 2019

Some have speculated that if Joe Biden falters in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, Hillary Clinton will jump in. In a repeat matchup of the 2016 election, Clinton runs dead even with President Trump, but even most Democrats don’t want her to get into the race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that Clinton and Trump earn 45% support each among Likely U.S. Voters. The deciding 11% remains undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

But just 18% think Clinton should enter the race for next year’s Democratic presidential nomination. Seventy-one percent (71%) don’t think she should run. Twelve percent (12%) are not sure.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of voters say Clinton is unlikely to win the nomination if she enters the race, with 35% who say she’s Not At All Likely to be nominated. Thirty-six percent (36%) see a Clinton nomination as likely, but that includes only 12% who say it’s Very Likely.

Among her fellow Democrats, 48% see a Clinton nomination as likely, 46% as unlikely. This includes 17% who say it’s Very Likely and 20% who consider it Not At All Likely.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on October 3 and 6, 2019 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Just over half of voters say they are likely to vote against Trump next year, and most of them say the president, not the Democratic candidate, is the likeliest reason why. Against the leading Democratic contender, though, it's Trump 47%, Biden 43%.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Democrats don’t think Clinton should enter the race for their party’s 2020 presidential nomination. But that compares to 80% of Republicans and 74% of voters not affiliated with either major party.

In a matchup with Trump, Clinton gets 76% Democratic support and 15% of the GOP vote. Eighty-one percent (81%) of Republicans and 18% of Democrats opt for Trump. Unaffiliated voters are almost evenly divided.

Women and those under 40 are more supportive of a Clinton nomination than men and older voters.

Running against Trump, Clinton earns 60% of the black vote. Whites and other minority voters give the edge to Trump.

Forty-two percent (42%) of all voters believe America would be better off today if Clinton had been elected president in 2016 instead of Trump. Forty-eight percent (48%) disagree.

However, just 54% of Democrats – and 32% of all voters – think Clinton won the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination fairly.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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