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POLITICS

North Carolina Senate: Cunningham (D) 47%, Tillis (R) 44%

Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham has moved into a three-point lead over incumbent Republican Thom Tillis in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey of Likely Voters in North Carolina finds Cunningham with 47% support to Tillis’ 44%. A week ago, the two men were tied at 45% apiece. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, while a surprisingly high six percent (6%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Among the 71% who say they have already voted, Cunningham leads 52% to 41%.

Ninety-four percent (96%) of Tar Heel State voters say they are certain to vote in this election. Cunningham leads 47% to 45% among these voters.

Tillis, a former speaker of the North Carolina House of Representatives, was elected to the Senate in 2014, edging incumbent Democrat Kay Hagen by less than two points. Cunningham, a lawyer and former state senator, appears to have regained his footing after the disclosure of an extramarital sexual relationship.

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The survey of 800 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted October 28-29, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

President Trump has edged to a two-point lead over Democrat Joe Biden in North Carolina.

Thirty-five out of the 100 U.S. Senate seats are on the line this election. Republicans currently hold a 53% to 45% advantage. In addition, two Independent senators - Vermont’s Bernie Sanders and Maine’s Angus King - largely vote with the Democrats. Depending on which party wins the vice presidency, Democrats need to take three or four seats away from the GOP to take control of the Senate.

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of voters in North Carolina consider the economy the most important issue in the election. For 25%, Trump’s overall job performance comes first in importance, while 22% feel that way about the coronavirus. Other issues don’t come close as far as the state’s voters are concerned: racial justice (8%); public safety (4%); national security (4%); illegal immigration (1%) and something else (3%).

Seventy-four percent (74%) of voters who rate the economy most important favor Tillis. Cunningham has the support of 56% of those who put Trump’s job performance first and 75% of those who emphasize the coronavirus.

Tillis leads among men and middle-aged voters. Cunningham is ahead among women and voters of all other ages.

Both candidates have 81% support among voters in their respective parties. Cunningham has a slight two-point advantage among voters not affiliated with either major party.

More voters plan to vote in person after all as Election Day approaches, with confidence even higher that all votes will be correctly counted.

Democrats strongly agree with Biden that America is entering “a dark winter” because of the coronavirus, but other voters aren’t nearly as gloomy. Trump is more upbeat, promising a COVID-19 vaccine soon, and most voters say they’re likely to get one.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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The survey of 800 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted October 28-29, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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