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Bloomberg Edges Ahead in Democratic Presidential Race

Friday, February 14, 2020

Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg has a narrow lead over Joe Biden among Democrats nationally in the race to be their party’s 2020 presidential nominee, but Biden and Bernie Sanders are the candidates seen as most likely to be nominated.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds Bloomberg with 26% support when Likely Democratic Voters are asked which candidate would best represent the party and make the best candidate against President Trump in November. Biden is a close second at 22%. Sanders is next with 18% of the Democratic vote.

South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg has 12% support among his fellow Democrats, followed by Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar (7%) and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren (6%). Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, while six percent (6%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

But when asked which of the candidates is most likely to actually win the nomination, 24% of Democrats pick Biden, while another 24% say Sanders. Twenty-one percent (21%) think Bloomberg is most likely to be the nominee. Eleven percent (11%) predict Buttigieg, followed by Klobuchar (5%) and Warren (3%). Two percent (2%) like someone else for the nomination, while 12% are not sure.

At the end of last month, Biden had 38% Democratic support nationally and a near two-to-one lead over second-place rival Sanders. Bloomberg was not included in that survey.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted February 12-13, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Biden, a longtime former U.S. senator and vice president under Barack Obama, has consistently led in matchup surveys with other Democratic presidential hopefuls since November 2017, perhaps due most to his higher name recognition. But when actual votes began to be counted in the just-passed Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, he performed poorly. Buttigieg and Klobuchar have been the surprise performers to date. Bloomberg did not strongly campaign in the early states, pinning his hopes to the Super Tuesday primaries on March 3.

Among all likely voters, 20% say Bloomberg would make the best candidate against Trump. He’s followed by Biden (16%), Sanders (13%), Klobuchar (12%), Buttigieg (10%) and Warren (6%). Ten percent (10%) like some other Democrat better, and 13% are undecided.

Twenty-five percent (25%) of all voters, however, think Sanders is most likely to win the Democrats’ 2020 nomination. Nineteen percent (19%) say Bloomberg has the best shot, while 14% feel that way about Biden. Eleven percent (11%) say Buttigieg is most likely to win, followed by Klobuchar (6%) and Warren (4%). Seven percent (7%) say someone else is most likely to be nominated, and 14% are not sure.

Voters not affiliated with either major party are drawn most to Bloomberg, Sanders and Klobuchar.

Health care and the economy dominate voter concerns as America begins the slow formal crawl to the next presidential election.

Most voters think Trump’s impeachment won’t hurt him at the polls in November and don’t share House Democrats’ concern that the upcoming election may be unfair if Trump is one of the candidates.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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