36% Still Think A Trump Win Likely Through Court Challenges

Most Republicans are still holding on to the hope of a second Trump term through the ongoing legal challenges in several states. But voters in general tend to see those challenges as political stalling rather than evidence of election fraud.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 36% of Likely U.S. Voters believe court challenges of election results in several states will result in President Trump’s reelection, but that includes only 21% who say it’s Very Likely. Fifty-nine percent (59%) think it’s unlikely Trump will emerge as the winner, with 43% who feel it’s Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Republicans, however, say the legal challenges are likely to result in Trump’s reelection, with 36% who say it’s Very Likely. That compares to only 14% of Democrats and 15% of voters not affiliated with either major party who see a Trump victory as Very Likely.

Among all voters, 43% view the Trump campaign’s challenges as the result of widespread voter fraud in several states. But 50% disagree and think they are just a political effort to delay Joe Biden’s victory.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted December 9-10, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Most voters say this year’s unprecedented level of mail-in voting was largely successful and continue to think Trump should concede the presidential race. But Republicans strongly believe Democrats are likely to have stolen the election.

Seventy-three percent (73%) of Republicans believe the election legal challenges are the result of widespread voter fraud. Seventy-six percent (76%) of Democrats and unaffiliated voters by a 49% to 39% margin think instead that the challenges are a political effort to delay Biden’s win.

The majority of voters in most demographic categories consider a Trump win as a result of the legal challenges to be unlikely.

Men are more likely than women to suspect voter fraud. The older the voter, the more likely they are to think the legal challenges are due to widespread fraud.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of blacks and 52% of other minority voters regard the challenges as a stalling tactic. Whites are evenly divided on the question.

Ninety-two percent (92%) of voters who Strongly Approve of Trump’s job performance think there has been widespread voter fraud. Among those who Strongly Disapprove of the job the president is doing, 89% say the legal challenges are an effort to delay Biden’s victory.

U.S. voters now regard each other as a bigger enemy than Russia or North Korea and just as dangerous as China.

Looking back at the presidential election, Trump voters overwhelmingly say they voted for the president, while a sizable number of Biden supporters admit they were voting against Trump rather than for the former vice president.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it's free) or follow us on Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.