If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.


Clinton vs. Cruz, Clinton vs. Paul

Monday, April 13, 2015

Hillary Clinton, now officially a candidate for president in 2016, leads the first two announced candidates for the Republican nomination but earns less than 50% support at this early stage.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Clinton picking up 47% of the vote to Kentucky Senator Rand Paul’s 37% if the 2016 presidential election was held today. Eleven percent (11%) would choose some other candidate given this matchup, while five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Clinton leads Texas Senator Ted Cruz by nine points - 47% to 38%. Again, 11% prefer some other candidate, while four percent (4%) are undecided.

Paul ran slightly closer to Clinton in a hypothetical matchup last June, 46% to 39%. Cruz trailed the former secretary of State 50% to 37% at that time.

In the latest matchups, Clinton is backed by 82% of Democrats, while about 70% of Republicans back Paul and Cruz. She runs even with the two GOP hopefuls among voters not affiliated with either major party. 

Separate polling finds Clinton well ahead of her rivals for the Democratic nomination. Republican voters rate Paul’s chances of getting the GOP presidential nomination as about the same as Cruz’s at this early stage of the game. 

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on April 9 & 12, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker surged to the front of the pack of Republican presidential hopefuls in recent weeks, and he now gives Clinton a run for her money. 

Regardless of their voting preferences, 70% of all voters agree that, in a presidential election season, the campaign lasts too long. Just 21% disagree. These findings are little changed from October 2011

Eighty-two percent (82%) of all voters say they are following recent news reports about the 2016 presidential race, including 40% who are following Very Closely. Even 72% of those who are following the news the closest think the campaign season lasts too long.

Among women, Clinton leads Cruz 49% to 36% and Paul 49% to 35%. Clinton leads by narrower margins among men.

Clinton holds overwhelming leads in both matchups among voters under 40. The hypothetical races are much closer among older voters. Both Republicans lead among voters 65 and older.

Most voters think both Republicans and Democrats should run newcomers in 2016. 

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is increasingly the favorite of left-leaning Democrats, but Clinton trounces her in a head-to-head matchup for their party’s 2016 presidential nomination. 

More voters than ever think the circumstances surrounding the murder of the U.S. ambassador and three other U.S. Embassy employees in Benghazi, Libya in 2012 will hurt Clinton’s campaign.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.

We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.

Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.

To learn more about our methodology, click here.