Iowa: Romney 23%, Gingrich 20%, Paul 18%, Perry 10%

For the fifth straight survey, the GOP field has a new frontrunner in Iowa.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Iowa Republican Caucus Participants shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 23% of the vote, only slightly ahead of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich who has 20%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul is right behind with 18% of the vote. Texas Governor Rick Perry earns 10% support, with no other candidate grabbing double-digits. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann picks up nine percent (9%) of the Iowa caucus vote, while former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum draws support from six percent (6%). Five percent (5%) back former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, while two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate. Eight percent (8%) are undecided at this time.

Last month, Gingrich shot to the head of the pack in Iowa with 32% of the vote, followed by Romney at 19%.  In October, businessman Herman Cain, was leading in the Hawkeye State. Before that Perry and Bachmann had their moment atop the polls.

Still, amidst the apparent volatility, Scott Rasmussen has noted some continuity in the numbers. As he describes in the video below, the numbers for Mitt Romney and Ron Paul have remained fairly steady despite the rotating cast of other candidates in the top tier.

Gingrich has lost 12 percentage points from a month ago and Herman Cain dropped out after having 13% of the vote. Scott Rasmussen points out that “With 25% of the vote up for grabs, no one candidate was the beneficiary. Roughly one-third went to Ron Paul, one-third to the combination of Rick Perry and Michelle Bachmann, and one-third to Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman.”

The final debate before the Iowa caucuses, is being held by Fox News tonight. It comes at a time when just 40% of Iowa caucus-goers are certain of their vote. That’s leaves plenty of room for change between now and January 3. Twenty-five percent (25%) say that debates are Very Important in terms of how they will vote. Twenty-nine percent (29%) believe there have been too many debates so far, but 50% say there’s been about the right amount.

Of those who are certain how they will vote, Romney leads with 29% while Gingrich and Paul are tied at 22%.

Romney remains on top of the New Hampshire Republican Primary field, but the race for second place between Gingrich and Paul is a lot closer than it was just two weeks ago. 

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This Iowa survey of 750 Likely Republican Caucus Participants was conducted on December 13, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.