More than 80% of likely Republican Primary voters say it is likely Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney are likely to beat President Obama in the general election, but they are less confident about Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and Texas Congressman Ron Paul doing the same.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary voters shows that 83% believe it is at least somewhat likely that Romney will beat Obama in 2012 if he wins the GOP nomination, including 52% who say it’s Very Likely.
Nearly the same number (81%) believes Perry can beat Obama in a general election, including 53% who see this outcome as Very Likely.
Only 13% don’t think Romney is likely to defeat the president in 2012, while 14% say that about Perry. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Perry and Romney are the clear frontrunners in the race for the Republican nomination.[ link]
Just over half of GOP primary voters (53%) say it’s at least somewhat likely that Bachmann can defeat Obama, but that number includes just 22% who say that’s Very Likely to happen. Forty-two percent (42%) believe it’s not likely that Bachmann could win the general election in 2012, with 14% who say it’s Not At All Likely to happen.
Most say Paul cannot beat Obama in the general election. Just 38% think that's even somewhat likely while 56% say it is not. These findings include 16% who say it’s Very Likely Paul can win the general election and 22% who say it’s Not At All Likely.
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The survey of 1,000 Likely GOP Primary Voters was conducted on September 19, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. Likely GOP Primary Voters include both Republicans and unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a GOP Primary. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology.
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