Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is scheduled to make a major appearance at a Tea Party gathering in Iowa tomorrow with many speculating about what she might announce. Voters aren’t really sure if she’ll run for president, but most think it would be bad for the Republicans if she entered the contest.
A plurality (47%) of Likely U.S. Voters believe it is at least somewhat likely that Palin will enter the presidential race, but that includes only 13% who feel it’s Very Likely. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 35% think a Palin bid is unlikely, but just five percent (5%) say it’s Not At All Likely. Eighteen percent (18%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Only 18% of voters think it would be good for Republicans if Palin entered the race. Sixty percent (60%) say it would be bad for the party, while 11% predict it would have no impact. Twelve percent (12%) are not sure.
Even most Republicans (52%) believe it would be bad for the GOP if Palin threw her hat in the ring, a view shared by 74% of Democrats and 54% of voters not affiliated with either major party.
Tea Party members are almost evenly divided over the impact of a Palin run on the GOP, but non-members believe overwhelmingly that it would be bad.
A recent poll showed that President Obama would defeat Palin 50% to 33%. She’s the prospective GOP candidate he runs best against at this point. Rasmussen Reports will release new Palin-Obama matchup numbers tomorrow morning.
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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 31-September 1, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
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