New York Senate: Gillibrand (D) 49%, DioGuardi (R) 39%

Democratic incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand continues to enjoy a double-digit lead over Republican challenger Joseph DioGuardi in the first post-primary survey of New York’s special U.S. Senate election. However, the GOP hopeful has gained some ground since winning the nomination.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Gillibrand picking up 49% of the vote, while DioGuardi earns 39% support, his best showing to date. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and seven percent (7%) more are undecided.

In early September, Gillibrand held a 51% to 31% advantage over DioGuardi, who beat out two opponents in the state’s GOP primary last Tuesday. Gillibrand easily won her party's nomination running against a lesser-known Democrat. It remains to be seen whether the new numbers reflect a lasting improvement for DioGuardi or simply reflect a bounce following his primary victory.

Since May, support for Gillibrand against DioGuardi has stayed in a narrow range of 49% to 51%. Prior to the latest results, support for the Republican ranged from a low of 28% in May to a high of 38% in June.

This race remains Solid Democratic in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Balance of Power rankings.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in New York was conducted on September 16, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.