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North Dakota: McCain and Obama Tied

North Dakota is as safe a Republican state as any in Presidential elections. George W. Bush carried the state by twenty-seven points in Election 2004 and twenty-eight points four years earlier. The state has voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate just once since 1936 and three times since 1916.

Despite that history, John McCain and Barack Obama are tied in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of North Dakota voters. Both men earn 43% of the vote. When leaners are included, McCain holds a statistically insignificant one-point advantage, 47% to 46%. Last week, a Rasmussen Reports survey showed Obama with a five-point advantage in neighboring Montana. That state, too, has a long history of voting Republican at the Presidential level but both states also have two Democratic U.S. Senators. McCain is returning the favor by running much stronger than recent Republicans in New Jersey.

In North Dakota, McCain leads by double digits among men but trails by nine among women. McCain earns the vote from 87% of Republicans while Obama attracts 79% of Democrats and holds an eighteen point lead among unaffiliated voters.

Obama leads by twenty points among those who consider economic issues most important while McCain has a thirty-seven point lead among those who see national security as the highest priority. Thirty-nine percent (39%) view the economy as most important while 24% say the same about national security.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that McCain is currently given a % chance of winning in North Dakota this November. With release of this poll, North Dakota shifts from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article. Larry Sabato also sees North Dakota leaning Republican in his most recent assessment of the race.

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Twenty-five percent (25%) of North Dakota voters say McCain is too old to be President while 45% say Obama is too inexperienced. These perceptions are tracked regularly on a national basis and updated continuously along with other key stats at Obama-McCain By the Numbers. Obama has a very modest lead over McCain nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Fifty-three percent (53%) of North Dakota voters say it’s more important to get the troops home from Iraq than it is to win the war. Forty-one percent (41%) disagree and say winning the war is more important.

Sixty-five percent (65%) favor offshore oil drilling, a figure close to the national average.

Even though George W. Bush won 63% of the vote in North Dakota four years ago, just 37% of the state’s voters now say he is doing a good or an excellent job.

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North Dakota
Likely Republican

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

55%

49%

48%

Obama (D)

41%

42%

44%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 8, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in North Dakota

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

33%

30%

Somewhat Favorable

34%

22%

Somewhat Unfavorable

13%

17%

Very Unfavorable

17%

29%

Not Sure

2%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.