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Obama Still Owns Illinois

Barack Obama continues to hold a solid lead over John McCain in his home state of Illinois. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama on top 56% to 39%.

The latest numbers are nearly identical to the race a month ago, when Obama, the state's junior U.S. senator, led 56% to 40%.

Nationally, the Democrat has held a steady lead over McCain over the last several weeks in the Daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Dick Durbin has a two-to-one lead over his Republican challenger Steve Sauerberg in the U.S. Senate race in Illinois, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports findings released earlier today.

McCain leads among unaffiliated voters in Illinois, 51% to 44%. The two candidates are tied among white voters at 47%, while Obama has a dominant lead among non-white voters. Obama leads 57% to 41% among men and 56% to 37% among women in the state.

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Voters in Illinois give their junior senator positive reviews. Obama is viewed favorably by 69% and unfavorably by 29%. McCain’s numbers are 47% favorable, 51% unfavorable.

Half of voters in Illinois say the top electoral issue is the economy, and 57% of voters trust Obama more to handle the national economy. The majority (60%) also believes Obama would help the state’s economy the most.

On national security, Illinois voters trust Obama more than McCain by a 52% to 43% margin. McCain in most parts of the country leads Obama on this issue.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Obama is currently given a % chance of winning Illinois’ 21 Electoral College votes this fall. Not only is the Democratic presidential nominee a longtime Illinois resident but the state is one of the most reliably Democratic in the Midwest. Illinois has gone for the party’s presidential candidate in the last four elections, including John Kerry who carried it by 10 points in 2004.

At the time this poll was released, Illinois is ranked as “Safe Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

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Illinois
Safe Democratic

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

38%

39%

36%

Obama (D)

60%

57%

57%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports October 13, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Illinois Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/01/2008

38%

60%

10/13/2008

39%

56%

09/17/2008

40%

56%

08/14/2008

38%

53%

07/08/2008

37%

50%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Illinois

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

27%

52%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

11%

Somewhat Unfavorable

20%

11%

Very Unfavorable

28%

24%

Not Sure

2%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.