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Illinois: Obama Still Holds Double-Digit Lead at Home

Barack Obama remains comfortably ahead of his Republican presidential rival John McCain -- 53% to 38% -- in his home state of Illinois, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

When “leaners” are factored in, the Democrat is ahead 55% to 40%. The longtime Illinois resident is now the state’s junior U.S. senator.

Last month, Obama had a 50% to 37% lead over McCain.

Illinois, one of the most reliably Democratic states in the Midwest, has gone for the party’s presidential candidate in the last four elections, including John Kerry who carried it by 10 points in 2004.

McCain has the support of 85% of Illinois Republicans, while 89% of the state’s Democrats are backing Obama. The Democrat has a sizable 51% to 34% lead among unaffiliated voters.

Obama’s 55% to 36% lead among women voters is virtually identical to last month’s findings, but he has jumped out to a 10-percentage point lead among men voters 51% to 41%. Last month McCain trailed by only three points.

The Republican is viewed favorably by 52%, down from 60% a month earlier. Obama, who also was at 60% in July, is now regarded favorably by 64% of Illinois voters.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Obama is currently given a % chance of winning Illinois’ 21 Electoral College votes this fall. At the time this poll was released, Illinois is ranked as “Safe Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Economic issues remain the number one concern this campaign season for 39%, down from 49% in July. National security issues are the number one concern of 23%, up slightly from a month ago. These numbers remain close to national averages.

Illinois voters by a 46% to 25% margin think Chicago’s bid for the 2016 summer Olympics will be unsuccessful, although over half (56%) think Mayor Richard Daley’s presence at the current Beijing Olympics will help the city’s chances. Only 7% think it will hurt and 22% believe it will have no impact. But 63% are worried that Chicago’s increase in crime will hurt its bid.

President Bush now earns good or excellent grades from 33% of Illinois voters for his job performance, an increase of seven percentage points from July. While 53% still think he is doing a poor job, that’s a slight improvement from the 57% who felt that way a month ago.

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Illinois
Safe Democratic

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

38%

39%

36%

Obama (D)

60%

57%

57%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports August 12, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Illinois Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/01/2008

38%

60%

10/13/2008

39%

56%

09/17/2008

40%

56%

08/14/2008

38%

53%

07/08/2008

37%

50%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Illinois

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

27%

52%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

11%

Somewhat Unfavorable

20%

11%

Very Unfavorable

28%

24%

Not Sure

2%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.