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Illinois: Obama Leads in Home State

Senator Barack Obama leads John McCain 50% to 37% in his home state of Illinois, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 52% to 41%.

As in many states, Obama has a strong lead among women in Illinois, but not among men. He leads 55% to 35% among women, but just 43% to 40% among male voters.

The two candidates are essentially tied among voters not affiliated with either major political party.

While 31% of Illinois voters believe McCain is too old to be president, 38% think Obama is too inexperienced for the job. National results for these questions and other key stats for Election 2008 are updated continuously at Obama-McCain By the Numbers.

Both candidates are viewed favorably by 60% of Illinois voters.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Obama is currently given a % chance of winning Illinois’ twenty-one Electoral College Votes this fall. John Kerry won the state by ten points in 2004. At the time this poll was released, Illinois is ranked as “Safe Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Not surprisingly, a plurality of voters in Illinois (49%) sees the economy as the most important issue of Election 2008. National security comes in a distant second, with 20% who find that to be the most important issue. These are similar to the national average. Voters who cite the economy as the top issue are more likely to choose Obama. Those who think national security is more important more often back McCain.

Most (56%) Illinois voters see getting the troops home from Iraq as more important than winning the war while 35% disagree and think winning the war is more important.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) favor drilling in offshore oil wells to ease gas prices, while 32% are opposed. Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters think it is at least somewhat likely that gas prices will decline if this practice is allowed, while 41% find this outcome unlikely.

President George W. Bush earns good or excellent ratings from just 26% of voters in Illinois, while 57% say he is doing a poor job. Nationally, Bush approval ratings continue to hit record lows.

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Illinois
Safe Democratic

Latest
RR Poll

RR Poll
Avg.

"538"
Avg.

RR
Mkts.

In
Trade

McCain (R)

38%

39%

36%

Obama (D)

60%

57%

57%

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 8, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

See Methodology.


Illinois Trends: McCain vs. Obama

Date

McCain

Obama

11/01/2008

38%

60%

10/13/2008

39%

56%

09/17/2008

40%

56%

08/14/2008

38%

53%

07/08/2008

37%

50%


Favorable Ratings for Presidential Candidates in Illinois

 

McCain

Obama

Very Favorable

27%

52%

Somewhat Favorable

22%

11%

Somewhat Unfavorable

20%

11%

Very Unfavorable

28%

24%

Not Sure

2%

2%


Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary

Republicans

160

Democrats

173

Toss-Ups & Leaners

205


About Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.