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61% Say Complete U.S. Troop Withdrawal From Iraq Unlikely This Year

A plurality of voters fears that the growing unrest in the Arab world will have a negative impact on the fragile political situation in Iraq, and most think it is unlikely that all U.S. troops will be out of that country by the end of the year as planned.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that only 19% of Likely U.S. Voters think the political unrest in the Arab world will make things better in Iraq, while 40% expect it to make things worse there. Eighteen percent (18%) say it will have no impact. Nearly one-in-four voters (23%) aren’t sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

If the situation in Iraq becomes more violent, just 22% think the United States should send troops back into the country. Sixty-five percent (65%) say the Iraqis should deal with any growing violence on their own. Thirteen percent (13%) are undecided.

Still, only 32% of voters say it is at least somewhat likely that the United States will remove its remaining 50,000 troops from Iraq this year as scheduled, with seven percent (7%) who say it is Very Likely. Sixty-one percent (61%) feel the full troop removal is unlikely, including 16% who say it is Not At All Likely to happen.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Americans now believe the unrest in the Arab world will lead to a major new war involving the United States, with 26% who say it is Very Likely.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 26-27, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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