40% of GOP Voters Think Civil War Likely

With race-driven anti-police protests nationwide, one-in-three voters continue to believe America is on the brink of another civil war. Blacks are the least optimistic that the protests will lead to positive change but the most supportive of removing Confederate symbols from public display.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 34% of Likely U.S. Voters think the United States will experience a second civil war sometime in the next five years, but that includes only nine percent (9%) who say it’s Very Likely. This compares to 31% and 11% respectively two years ago. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

While Democrats were more worried about pending civil war in 2018, now Republicans (40%) are more likely than Democrats (28%) and voters not affiliated with either major party (38%) to see a second civil war on the horizon.

Thirty-nine percent (39%) of all voters believe the removal of Confederate symbols, names and monuments throughout the country honoring those who fought in the first civil war will help race relations. Twenty-seven percent (27%) disagree and think it will hurt race relations instead. These numbers are reversed from August 2017 when 28% said removal of the symbols would help race relations, while 39% thought it would hurt instead. Little changed is the 28% who think the removal of public traces of the Confederacy will have no impact.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) feel the current protests over the killing of an unarmed black man by police in Minneapolis will lead to long-term, meaningful racial change in America. Thirty-one percent (31%) disagree, while just as many (32%) are not sure.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted June 11 and 14, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

As recently as last November, 73% of American Adults said Americans should be proud of the history of the United States. But 32% of Democrats share New York Governor Andrew Cuomo’s view that “we’re not going to make America great again. It was never that great.” 

Women and those under 40 are more supportive of the current anti-police protests and the anti-Confederacy drive than men and older voters. Younger voters worry most about another civil war.

Just 29% of blacks believe the current protests will lead to long-term, meaningful racial change in America, compared to 35% of whites and 48% of other minority voters. Blacks (54%) are far more confident than whites (36%) and other minorities (40%), however, that the removal of Confederate symbols, names and monuments will help race relations.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of Democrats think getting rid of all traces of the Confederacy will help race relations, a view shared by only 19% of Republicans and 31% of unaffiliated voters.

Among voters who see the erasure of Confederate history as hurting race relations, 50% believe a civil war is likely in the next five year.

Most Americans don’t think their fellow countrymen know much about the nation’s past and have questioned the accuracy of most school textbooks.

In 2017 following a racial blow-up in Charlottesville, Virginia, 50% of voters agreed with President Trump that it is “sad to see the history and culture of our great country being ripped apart with the removal of our beautiful statues and monuments.” 

Ninety-four percent (94%) said three years ago that it is better to try to learn from the wrongs of the past than to erase them.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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