If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.


Much Ado About Nothing

A Commentary by Douglas Schoen

With the publication of two polls this week showing no change in the Democratic nomination for President, it seems clear that Hillary Clinton's position is most likely more secure than many in the media and her opponents would like it to be.

The Rasmussen and Newsweek polls both show little change in the Democratic nomination since Senator Clinton's much criticized performance in last Tuesday's debate.

The conclusion from this is clear.

It will take much more than some perceived flip flops on hot button issues like immigration to derail Senator Clinton's candidacy. And my experience over 30 years suggests quite powerfully that when a candidate has as large an advantage as she enjoys, it would take a very large gaffe or a real and enduring policy dispute to change the dynamic of the race.

To be sure, the race in Iowa is still close, though even here Senator Clinton has a narrow, but statistically significant advantage. But in the next 30 states to hold primaries, she holds wide double digit advantages in most if not all of those jurisdictions.

To me, the events of last week say more about the media's desire to create a real horserace than it does about the actual contest for the Democratic nomination for President.

Douglas Schoen is a founding and former partner of Penn Schoen & Berland, and a Fox News Contributor.

Schoen was President Bill Clinton's research and strategic consultant during the 1996 reelection campaign.

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