If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.


Without Polls, Would Biden Still Be Winning in a Landslide?

Commentary By Brian C. Joondeph

As the 2020 presidential election nears, polls portend a landslide victory for the Biden/Harris ticket.

Biden had a 16-point lead over Trump in an early October CNN poll. The Opinium and Guardian poll from days ago gave Biden a 17-point lead. Even Rasmussen Reports, one of the most accurate pollsters in 2016, showed Biden still leading Trump by five points this week, admittedly a drop from 12 points the week before.

But what if there were no polls? Would Biden still be running away with the election? How would one then render a prediction about the upcoming election?

Start with crowd sizes. President Trump has resumed his rallies, drawing tens of thousands, including many Democrats and those who hadn’t previously voted. By contrast, Harris and Biden held a campaign event in Arizona that couldn’t draw flies. USA Today, Democrat media apologist, defended the absent crowd since “it wasn’t a rally.” By that logic, neither was President Trump’s recent hospitalization at Walter Reed Medical Center, but the crowds gathered outside the hospital totaled more than a month’s worth of attendance at Biden events.

Then there are the bike and boat rallies, Amish horse and buggy parades, even a pro-Trump rally on the Golden Gate Bridge in uber liberal San Francisco. Where are similar events for Biden? Unless you consider the protests and riots in Portland, Denver and other cities as Harris/Biden campaign events.

Biden held a rally in Toledo, Ohio, and there were more Trump supporters outside the rally chanting “four more years” than there were Biden supporters at the rally. If Biden has such a commanding lead, why is he even campaigning in Ohio?

Which campaign has energy? Trump, despite being recently hospitalized for COVID, is back on the campaign trail, holding rallies and giving lengthy interviews, including two hours on the Rush Limbaugh radio show. Biden by contrast continues to call “a lid” on in person events by 10 AM, something he seems to do at least every other day. Both men are in their 70s but there is a clear difference in energy and stamina, something mandatory for a commander in chief.

Trump likes using hyperbole and brands his opponents through clever nicknames. One may not like his style, but his remarks are deliberate and accurate. Compare to Biden who in only a few days displayed a shocking lack of memory and cognition. He claimed to be running “for the Senate” and forgot his 2012 opponent, Mitt Romney, referring to him as “the senator who was a Mormon, the governor, OK.”

Trump and Republicans are confident. Just look at the Barrett confirmation hearings where GOP senators were relaxed compared to their Democrat counterparts who were perpetually angry.

The economy is roaring back after a lengthy COVID shutdown, much faster than the “experts” predicted with rising GDP and falling unemployment. America is inching closer to the blockbuster economy of early 2020.

There are also non-opinion related numbers favorable to Trump, as political analyst David Chapman noted in a Twitter thread. “No incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the fourth highest all-time. Higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama.”

He also noted this, “Three times in history America has faced a pandemic, recession and civil unrest during an election year. The incumbent party is 3-0 in those elections.” And this, “Since 2004, the candidate that led in Google searches has won the election. Trump leads Biden in Google searches by a ratio of 3 to 1.”

Biden is certainly leading the polls, just as Hillary Clinton did four years ago. But the intangible factors, the observations and the numbers that do not rely on an opinion poll tell a different story.

If the weatherman says it’s raining and you see sunshine outside, what’s your conclusion?

Brian C. Joondeph, MD, is a Denver-based physician and freelance writer whose pieces have appeared in American Thinker, Daily Caller, Rasmussen Reports and other publications. Follow him on Facebook,  LinkedIn, Twitter, Parler and QuodVerum.

Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.

We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. To ensure editorial control and independence, we pay for the polls ourselves and generate revenue through the sale of subscriptions, sponsorships, and advertising. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Additionally, the data drives a daily update newsletter and various media outlets across the country.

Some information, including the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and commentaries are available for free to the general public. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data.

To learn more about our methodology, click here.